Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd114482749e15b7427a874b6598857be4f32ab8c4dba57192851da22d5b89079

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $843,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $418,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $843,023 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8552…eb1cbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	18,500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91cf…bb9ebacked Yes	2c	17,918$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	14,184$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.48	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	14,074$799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.45	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	12,738$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.65	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	11,809$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.91	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	11,411$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.56	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	11,201$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.84	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	11,120$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.46	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	2c	9,679$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.52	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	1c	9,168$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.16	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	0c	9,051$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	8,696$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.05	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	8,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	8,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	4c	7,978$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.94	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	7,724$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.02	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	7,014$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5350…df2abacked Yes	0c	6,523$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	0c	6,436$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	6,345$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.8	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	0c	5,825$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.83	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	4c	5,309$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.4	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	2c	5,107$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	5,000$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.22	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	2c	4,787$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.3	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	4,640$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.77	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	4,418$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.12	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	11c	4,317$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	4,100$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.9	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	4,000$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	1c	4,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	4,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe50a…2da4backed Yes	1c	3,780$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.36	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	3,538$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.59	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	3,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	3,369$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc823…528abacked Yes	1c	3,365$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	3,178$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.77	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ecc…6931backed Yes	7c	3,117$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.22	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	5c	3,075$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.5	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes	1c	3,010$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.12	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-91.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	2c	3,000$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	2c	2,965$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.15	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	1c	2,838$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	9c	2,838$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.6	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	6c	2,829$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.99	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	2c	2,737$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01d6…01cbbacked Yes	1c	2,725$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	1c	2,719$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.37	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	1c	2,622$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	8c	2,500$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.87	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	2c	2,468$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.74	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	4c	2,382$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	2,141$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	2c	2,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.28	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	2,000$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.93	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	6c	1,826$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.29	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	1,741$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.65	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes	4c	1,627$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.78	62	21%13 W · 49 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	5c	1,600$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.6	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	1,576$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	7c	1,533$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.33	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	1,525$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.05	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0442…c517backed Yes	2c	1,510$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	91	35.2%32 W · 59 L	+6.1wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	1,505$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.61	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	1,471$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	1c	1,461$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	3c	1,425$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.18	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	11c	1,422$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.02	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1622…4d4ebacked Yes	1c	1,397$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes	1c	1,388$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x431e…79ecbacked Yes	3c	1,361$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.96	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…c3cabacked Yes	11c	1,343$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.18	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	3c	1,254$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.89	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes	1c	1,200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d90…1e8bbacked Yes	4c	1,154$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x962c…bcd6backed Yes	9c	1,153$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.12	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	8c	1,100$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	2c	1,094$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc5…085cbacked Yes	2c	1,065$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	8c	1,052$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.16	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,028$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.17	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	4c	1,019$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	7c	1,005$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	11c	1,000$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	8c	999.99$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	5c	999.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	942.71$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.55	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	8c	925.03$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.52	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48c5…d96abacked Yes	7c	899.99$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-85.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes	11c	890.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event