Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb41dbf64ca0c88f2fe9b19721211de85feeccc5806b4408d3413a7cc9d5eb0df

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,714,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,239,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,714,003 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 959 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3eb8…9d7bbacked Yes	0c	47,000$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	18c	30,143$5,363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,363.4	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	29c	24,207$7,099 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,099.45	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5048…4b29backed Yes	3c	23,920$730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$729.94	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc647…c6e4backed Yes	1c	20,202$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.96	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	0c	20,169$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	79c	19,969$15,797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,172.03	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb24e…7303backed Yes	1c	18,246$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.24	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-75%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	15,244$3,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,208.6	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	30c	14,101$4,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,176.65	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	19c	13,974$2,723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,722.75	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	24c	12,522$2,945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,944.6	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	23c	11,649$2,701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700.51	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	9c	11,421$1,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,025.39	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	24c	11,201$2,682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,682.07	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	22c	11,166$2,481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,481.04	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e3…f1c2backed Yes	2c	11,048$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes	33c	11,047$3,602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,601.98	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e36…c05cbacked Yes	39c	10,916$4,271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,270.95	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+71%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	15c	10,806$1,651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,651.26	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	22c	10,779$2,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,375.05	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad5…4501backed Yes	2c	10,474$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.15	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	32c	10,439$3,308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,307.97	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x866d…48a0backed Yes	1c	10,290$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.13	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	12c	10,032$1,195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,195.11	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	9,945$1,272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,272.17	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	58c	9,606$5,574 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,031.88	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a05…b10bbacked Yes	14c	9,460$1,371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,370.68	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+277.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	20c	9,331$1,861 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,861.14	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	27c	9,308$2,479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,479.22	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	19c	9,259$1,735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,735.31	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	17c	9,192$1,571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,570.87	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	19c	8,845$1,724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,723.83	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c68…878dbacked Yes	23c	8,715$1,972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,971.62	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	8,040$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.51	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	34c	7,875$2,678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,678.49	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8038…72cfbacked Yes	1c	7,357$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	20c	7,304$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,470	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82fe…7610backed Yes	1c	7,204$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.12	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc1…3e21backed Yes	0c	7,080$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.28	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+77.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	26c	6,865$1,788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,788.34	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	28c	6,780$1,890 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,889.71	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	64c	6,628$4,213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,414.63	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	17c	6,387$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,111.14	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	16c	6,321$994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$994.38	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	5,977$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.14	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	17c	5,840$977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$976.83	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	5,481$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.81	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	60c	5,335$3,189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,145.99	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No	60c	5,240$3,131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,108.65	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked No	67c	5,084$3,407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,677.47	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	9c	5,000$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.97	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	38c	4,983$1,908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,907.72	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	79c	4,929$3,905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,023.53	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked No	73c	4,709$3,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,268.53	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes	12c	4,646$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.78	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	29c	4,630$1,346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,346.27	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	11c	4,608$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.33	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	4,600$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.66	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	4,516$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	24c	4,437$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,070.82	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes	22c	4,145$915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$915.22	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes	29c	4,033$1,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,173.45	93	32.3%30 W · 63 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	12c	3,622$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.72	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.42	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes	31c	3,420$1,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,073.62	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	80c	3,414$2,714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$699.73	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	31c	3,400$1,051 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,051.27	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf108…25aebacked Yes	15c	3,308$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.5	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Yes	38c	3,295$1,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,249.78	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	3,222$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.28	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb781…7fb3backed Yes	0c	3,181$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	35c	3,117$1,102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,102.25	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	8c	3,092$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.56	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	25c	3,070$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.85	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	29c	3,065$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.63	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	18c	3,044$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.33	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	43c	3,007$1,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,287.83	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes	33c	2,980$993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$993.48	174	34.5%60 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d7…95d0backed No	70c	2,901$2,019 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$882.46	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x499f…ccafbacked Yes	41c	2,800$1,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,161.3	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	21c	2,796$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$586.78	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	27c	2,763$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$745	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	4c	2,750$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.62	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	31c	2,734$858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$858.38	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed No	76c	2,697$2,062 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$634.28	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	2,685$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.14	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	8c	2,653$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.62	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b90…62d6backed Yes	34c	2,570$878 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$877.9	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	15c	2,557$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.12	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700b…652dbacked Yes	31c	2,540$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.32	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No	67c	2,453$1,643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$810.66	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No	66c	2,403$1,583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$819.8	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	16c	2,400$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.89	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5745…fa76backed Yes	4c	2,396$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.51	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	14c	2,369$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.23	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	2c	2,306$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.34	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	40c	2,281$916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$915.81	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	72c	2,276$1,642 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$634.3	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event