TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x07f8…ccac

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
114
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Tweets, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 52 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT8622.1%19 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.25
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.24
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.38
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+76.2%+$252.93
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.88
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.15
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$64.5
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.12
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$26.87
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$18
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.25
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+77.9%+$43.8
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$21.97
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+640.7%+$86.5
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+212.5%+$27.2
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+37.9%+$5.5
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.7
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19.8
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.17
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$18.4
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+687.4%+$87.3
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffsbacked Nemiga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffsbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.75
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Europe Finals Playoffsbacked Team Nemesis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.91
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffsbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.91
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffsbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$5.11
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffsbacked KOLESIE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.15
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$12
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Championships: Norway vs. Latviabacked Latvia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.3
World Championships: Norway vs. Denmarkbacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$5.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the WNBA and WNBPA sign a new CBA by Mar. 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.