Music · resolved market
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cc383b80e126654fc7fcb779278fa9865611ca48ff7ae765a5c2021fd632a33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,892 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2386…1722backed Yes | 60c | 4,362$2,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.87 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed Yes | 69c | 3,268$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 18c | 1,879$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.55 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…22f0backed No | 19c | 1,563$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 1,057$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.33 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 33c | 1,050$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.21 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 30c | 1,015$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.11 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 32c | 847.17$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.86 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…e5c4backed Yes | 57c | 776.64$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 60c | 748.59$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.47 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 18c | 699.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 23c | 438.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 35c | 434.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.87 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 14c | 365.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed Yes | 69c | 345.29$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 242$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed No | 59c | 225.04$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…6f60backed Yes | 23c | 221.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 24c | 209.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 43c | 208.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d5…d528backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 54c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f8…ccacbacked No | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 36c | 121.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 62c | 109.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 103$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 21c | 100.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…189cbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…d01abacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e1…031ebacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked No | 63c | 88.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 48c | 88.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…d892backed No | 34c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…7041backed No | 41c | 78.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dee…8780backed Yes | 58c | 72.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 37c | 72.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f88…2d51backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 38c | 51.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…97c1backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a8…db1fbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…1b58backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…bf3bbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…8cf0backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21b1…b066backed Yes | 75c | 33.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 29.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?this page
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be at least 550k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be less than 300k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.