TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be at least 550k?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,169 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa07d…9871backed Yes44c3,134$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked No34c2,012$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.0714661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No55c1,629$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.126943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked No80c1,104$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.91154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+79.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes33c1,100$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3672433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes29c812.66$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.594151.2%21 W · 20 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+45.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4626…be3fbacked Yes15c748.37$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c666.58$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.068923.6%21 W · 68 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No65c656.9$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.741968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+55.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes34c651.52$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.52922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x912b…9156backed Yes39c600$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2386…1722backed No72c538.97$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.913847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No69c511.01$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.694751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc035…5efbbacked No70c458.52$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes25c450$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes16c365.34$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.121816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes53c351.28$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.825836.2%21 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0006…2cafbacked Yes66c300$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d1…9eacbacked Yes44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d12…1167backed No32c300$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed Yes7c271$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc603…6b37backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c9…edbdbacked Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No80c200$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes28c183.79$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.381315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-58.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0cd3…de97backed Yes67c160.94$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb376…3ecebacked Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…ae14backed Yes46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf0…34b8backed Yes44c150$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a7…0af9backed No60c136.4$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.711145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes43c124.37$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c105.4$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6222640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No80c102$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…b759backed Yes68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac38…69dbbacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd210…92dfbacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No70c86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.82755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes30c78.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.451450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No70c70.03$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.842313%3 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-82.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes69c70$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes41c64.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.334629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed Yes66c56.05$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf212…a810backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a71…62b1backed No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+119.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf459…01edbacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf877…77e1backed No76c49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes38c49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.622433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2135…9e8fbacked Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a31…9784backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea0…e19dbacked No56c36.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.891275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No71c35.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes47c34.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-76.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x910e…29bcbacked Yes38c33.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.77250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No68c20.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a0…d05bbacked Yes52c20.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No72c17.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.962673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.