Music · resolved market
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be at least 550k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73b676056b37960fdccc8f7667dd88ffaa715366a625e3f4629aa555c560e32a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,169 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 44c | 3,134$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 34c | 2,012$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.07 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 55c | 1,629$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.12 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 80c | 1,104$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 33c | 1,100$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 29c | 812.66$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.59 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…be3fbacked Yes | 15c | 748.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 666.58$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.06 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 656.9$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.74 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 34c | 651.52$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912b…9156backed Yes | 39c | 600$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed No | 72c | 538.97$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.91 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 511.01$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.69 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc035…5efbbacked No | 70c | 458.52$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 25c | 450$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 16c | 365.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 53c | 351.28$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.82 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0006…2cafbacked Yes | 66c | 300$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d1…9eacbacked Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d12…1167backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…baa8backed Yes | 7c | 271$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc603…6b37backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…edbdbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 28c | 183.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…de97backed Yes | 67c | 160.94$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…34b8backed Yes | 44c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed No | 60c | 136.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 43c | 124.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 105.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 80c | 102$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…69dbbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 70c | 86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 30c | 78.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 70c | 70.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 64.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 66c | 56.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…62b1backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…01edbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2135…9e8fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a31…9784backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 56c | 36.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 47c | 34.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked Yes | 38c | 33.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 68c | 20.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…d05bbacked Yes | 52c | 20.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be at least 550k?this page
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?Yes won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?No won
- Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be less than 300k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.