TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5a71…62b1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Music, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Music at 55 out of 100; worst UFC at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT3046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.98
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Benoît Saint Denis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Cory Sandhagen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Terrance McKinney · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Robert Whittaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Josh Hokit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$8.51
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Diego Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$18.1
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Arnold Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$38.33
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Daniel Santos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Malcolm Wellmaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Tuco Tokkos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Jacqueline Cavalcanti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Tatsuro Taira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alexander Volkov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)backed Roman Kopylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$37.14
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)backed Pat Sabatini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)backed Jose Ochoa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Azamat Murzakanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.74
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Curtis Blaydes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.42
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Cub Swanson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$12.43
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mateusz Gamrot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.66
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)backed Tatiana Suarez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.17
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Rafael Estevam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.34
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Chris Duncan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.47
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.8
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.8
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.6
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$9.1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$45.88
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$41.22
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300%+$90
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.3
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+27.8%+$10.16
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+119.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+81.8%+$16.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+203.8%+$41.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+63.9%+$9.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+58.7%+$11.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$9.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$31.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.