Music · resolved market
Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9707d0632a18e9496ef040de9b74c5c61ccc606ac451405386d79572eb9f166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 14c | 2,065$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 32c | 776$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked Yes | 32c | 657$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 32c | 541$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…86b7backed No | 68c | 504$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked Yes | 59c | 496$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked No | 41c | 481$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed No | 68c | 459$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 68c | 414$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 55c | 270$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 45c | 270$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed No | 68c | 216$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed No | 68c | 198$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…711cbacked Yes | 10c | 141.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 68c | 127$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…5c8bbacked Yes | 16c | 124.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 100.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…62b1backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 14c | 90.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed Yes | 38c | 82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9fa3backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…7402backed Yes | 26c | 47.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f12…4cabbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff4…5a79backed Yes | 73c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…4bd4backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k?this page
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be at least 400k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be less than 150k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.