Music · resolved market
Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be less than 150k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36352906a435bb57bbce5c12b8a016b42beee442645c27e025a6b605f167dbe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18a6…1530backed Yes | 37c | 1,647$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x861a…a173backed Yes | 48c | 733.38$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…7774backed Yes | 32c | 622.31$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d4…0be8backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +248%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 4c | 305.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 68c | 300.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 61c | 249.24$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…e7c0backed Yes | 7c | 223.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed No | 70c | 207.45$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ec…bf06backed Yes | 7c | 163.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 146.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…a1b7backed No | 65c | 123.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 32c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 102.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…500fbacked Yes | 14c | 91.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 32c | 88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 75.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 14c | 75.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Yes | 40c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 74c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be less than 150k?this page
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be at least 400k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k?Yes won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.