Music · resolved market
Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be at least 400k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae33b3cb1b0af888ea00e0a035376c0319a56a8c28fb3521b22d28ecebbd94e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,433$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.29 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,299$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…3091backed Yes | 11c | 1,040$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2d…689fbacked Yes | 9c | 594.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 535.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Yes | 10c | 194.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…711cbacked Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 10c | 181.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…768cbacked Yes | 11c | 178.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…4a19backed Yes | 10c | 177.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 177$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…3392backed Yes | 10c | 150.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…1922backed Yes | 10c | 142.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2f…0291backed Yes | 17c | 120.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…af14backed Yes | 33c | 42.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 17.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be at least 400k?this page
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k?Yes won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be less than 150k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.