UFC · resolved market
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb929fd6c5eb0fa4d20f3e731c500317029aa651780b179562a9a9c6fa2cf12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jose Ochoaof Clayton Carpenter, Jose Ochoa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $395,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $475,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Jose Ochoa | 62c | 139,687$86,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,111.4 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 122,258$46,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,456.02 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…ec43backed Clayton Carpenter | 39c | 30,000$11,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,699.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Jose Ochoa | 61c | 26,342$16,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,179.96 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 15,750$5,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,983.95 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Clayton Carpenter | 37c | 15,000$5,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,549.97 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Clayton Carpenter | 39c | 13,981$5,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,452.41 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Jose Ochoa | 63c | 10,000$6,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710.19 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 10,000$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Clayton Carpenter | 37c | 8,386$3,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,102.86 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 8,268$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,138.07 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 8,200$5,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,198 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db5…e279backed Jose Ochoa | 63c | 8,137$5,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,992.79 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 7,500$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 7,282$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760.96 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Clayton Carpenter | 39c | 6,866$2,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,707.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…0eecbacked Jose Ochoa | 62c | 5,947$3,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,260.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…01a8backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 5,450$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.95 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Jose Ochoa | 62c | 4,839$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.71 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…3172backed Jose Ochoa | 60c | 4,000$2,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf835…c527backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 3,900$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…9889backed Clayton Carpenter | 39c | 3,144$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.34 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 2,594$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.21 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Clayton Carpenter | 13c | 2,308$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Jose Ochoa | 63c | 2,299$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.35 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 2,019$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.53 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked Jose Ochoa | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…1a79backed Clayton Carpenter | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Jose Ochoa | 62c | 2,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.9 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Jose Ochoa | 63c | 1,766$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.42 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Clayton Carpenter | 14c | 1,747$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.94 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 1,630$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.4 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 1,620$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.56 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 1,608$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Jose Ochoa | 62c | 1,297$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.75 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Jose Ochoa | 61c | 1,266$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.63 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 1,116$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.46 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c5…5dccbacked Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 1,111$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Jose Ochoa | 62c | 1,109$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.39 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 1,100$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Jose Ochoa | 60c | 1,058$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.01 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Clayton Carpenter | 40c | 1,043$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.42 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 1,011$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.56 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Jose Ochoa | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Jose Ochoa | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Clayton Carpenter | 11c | 999.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…0f85backed Jose Ochoa | 62c | 942.27$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.06 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dad…1d41backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Jose Ochoa | 62c | 803.25$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.24 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Clayton Carpenter | 27c | 757$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.58 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…b574backed Jose Ochoa | 80c | 750.02$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.02 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 701$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.39 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Clayton Carpenter | 39c | 673.41$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Jose Ochoa | 62c | 660$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba6…ae0cbacked Clayton Carpenter | 16c | 617.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Clayton Carpenter | 36c | 583.13$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.93 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Jose Ochoa | 60c | 520$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…070dbacked Clayton Carpenter | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62de…39fbbacked Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Jose Ochoa | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Clayton Carpenter | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef50…e3bdbacked Clayton Carpenter | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…e0bcbacked Jose Ochoa | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 499.96$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Clayton Carpenter | 4c | 477.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Clayton Carpenter | 24c | 456.87$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edd…e968backed Jose Ochoa | 66c | 439.85$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Clayton Carpenter | 30c | 422.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed Jose Ochoa | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Clayton Carpenter | 8c | 394.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…fe3abacked Jose Ochoa | 61c | 382.36$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…3d49backed Jose Ochoa | 63c | 374.8$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 360.66$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Clayton Carpenter | 25c | 355.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Jose Ochoa | 62c | 354.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe641…0f63backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 354$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…29a4backed Clayton Carpenter | 40c | 351.41$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…5a4dbacked Jose Ochoa | 63c | 349.21$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Jose Ochoa | 63c | 345.21$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 336.42$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…fc0bbacked Clayton Carpenter | 22c | 329.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…427ebacked Jose Ochoa | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Jose Ochoa | 61c | 323.7$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Jose Ochoa | 62c | 322.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…61e5backed Jose Ochoa | 62c | 317.79$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Jose Ochoa | 63c | 317.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 299.9$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Jose Ochoa | 61c | 293.11$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Jose Ochoa | 62c | 290.29$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Jose Ochoa | 61c | 285$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Clayton Carpenter | 37c | 270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…d2f5backed Clayton Carpenter | 11c | 264.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6d3bbacked Clayton Carpenter | 38c | 263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…daecbacked Clayton Carpenter | 40c | 260.76$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Clayton Carpenter | 39c | 256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Clayton Carpenter | 37c | 250$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Jose Ochoa | 61c | 244.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.58 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…029bbacked Clayton Carpenter | 34c | 239.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.