UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5785573ac985f9626c5322600c468905597ba113c808d2f3eb88500607a60d4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 63c | 4,234$2,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.74 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Under | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 37c | 1,218$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.66 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 36c | 279.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 35c | 85.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 34c | 77.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Under | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 35c | 58.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Over | 66c | 44.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…8022backed Under | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Over | 65c | 35.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +39%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 35c | 33.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked Over | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Over | 65c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…7a84backed Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Over | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…4788backed Over | 66c | 20.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)Jose Ochoa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.