UFC · resolved market
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87348688ee0df7a6842ed6c0c4503836922e16db1741600ec540ae6e7f206bdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diego Lopesof Steve Garcia, Diego Lopes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,684,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,895,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,684,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,324 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Diego Lopes | 59c | 1,000,929$589,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411,700.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Diego Lopes | 58c | 399,893$233,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166,268.47 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 298,458$123,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123,749.52 | 203 | 48.3%98 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Steve Garcia | 40c | 198,974$79,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,589.74 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Steve Garcia | 43c | 152,389$65,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,080.41 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Diego Lopes | 59c | 152,171$90,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,868.25 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Diego Lopes | 71c | 149,176$105,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,237.67 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Steve Garcia | 44c | 130,736$57,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,601.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 128,724$53,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,080.35 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 107,494$43,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,697.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 89,440$37,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,152.55 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Steve Garcia | 40c | 79,999$32,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,199.79 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 75,000$31,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,499.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…c4fbbacked Steve Garcia | 42c | 58,811$24,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,612.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 53,226$22,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,354.97 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 50,973$20,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,898.76 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…a775backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 47,440$19,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,450.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed Diego Lopes | 58c | 44,950$26,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,718.65 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…74a5backed Diego Lopes | 58c | 44,074$25,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,511.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Steve Garcia | 42c | 43,000$18,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,059.9 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Steve Garcia | 40c | 40,385$16,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,153.83 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 40,008$16,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,603.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 39,558$16,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,614.25 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 35,682$14,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,526.17 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Steve Garcia | 41c | 32,000$13,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,120 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Diego Lopes | 60c | 30,000$18,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Steve Garcia | 41c | 30,000$12,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,299.99 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Steve Garcia | 41c | 30,000$12,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,299.98 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Steve Garcia | 40c | 28,659$11,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,525.57 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Diego Lopes | 58c | 26,005$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,004.93 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Steve Garcia | 42c | 25,800$10,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,836 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb175…2fd8backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 23,227$9,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,861.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Steve Garcia | 42c | 17,300$7,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,266 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…367ebacked Diego Lopes | 60c | 16,667$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,666.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709e…66f5backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 16,485$6,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,758.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Diego Lopes | 56c | 15,521$8,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,855.31 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…6280backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 15,500$6,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,510 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Steve Garcia | 39c | 14,444$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Diego Lopes | 59c | 13,687$8,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,645.58 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…54edbacked Diego Lopes | 57c | 12,656$7,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,417.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Steve Garcia | 40c | 12,516$5,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,006.53 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36e…12d8backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 12,000$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,920 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Steve Garcia | 42c | 11,800$4,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,956 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 11,388$4,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,777.87 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Steve Garcia | 41c | 11,144$4,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,568.94 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 10,805$4,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,430 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 10,380$4,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,307.7 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 10,000$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Diego Lopes | 58c | 9,000$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Diego Lopes | 57c | 8,348$4,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,586.13 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Diego Lopes | 58c | 8,073$4,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,421.37 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…9889backed Steve Garcia | 43c | 8,000$3,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,440 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118c…3fffbacked Steve Garcia | 42c | 7,940$3,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Diego Lopes | 60c | 7,724$4,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,089.76 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…d3eabacked Diego Lopes | 57c | 7,200$4,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,096 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Diego Lopes | 59c | 6,692$3,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.44 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 6,370$2,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,692.72 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 6,233$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555.53 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 6,053$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.25 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 6,000$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Diego Lopes | 55c | 5,759$3,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.05 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…d3febacked Diego Lopes | 53c | 5,664$3,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed Diego Lopes | 58c | 5,596$3,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…a4a9backed Diego Lopes | 55c | 5,444$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…b72abacked Steve Garcia | 41c | 5,363$2,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe988…cf23backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 5,190$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Diego Lopes | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Steve Garcia | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Steve Garcia | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…fbbcbacked Diego Lopes | 58c | 4,914$2,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,043.69 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d6…c4adbacked Diego Lopes | 56c | 4,700$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…7347backed Steve Garcia | 43c | 4,651$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…2378backed Diego Lopes | 59c | 4,407$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56d…d621backed Diego Lopes | 58c | 4,310$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Steve Garcia | 42c | 4,011$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.24 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Steve Garcia | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Steve Garcia | 41c | 4,000$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Steve Garcia | 41c | 4,000$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Diego Lopes | 58c | 4,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Diego Lopes | 58c | 3,912$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.36 | 360 | 48.3%174 W · 186 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Steve Garcia | 45c | 3,863$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Diego Lopes | 57c | 3,758$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.8 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…cb8fbacked Diego Lopes | 56c | 3,570$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…bba6backed Diego Lopes | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Diego Lopes | 58c | 3,448$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.28 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Diego Lopes | 60c | 3,421$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.65 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Diego Lopes | 57c | 3,376$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.44 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…4652backed Diego Lopes | 60c | 3,334$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.6 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed Diego Lopes | 58c | 3,115$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Steve Garcia | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Diego Lopes | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Diego Lopes | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Steve Garcia | 45c | 2,986$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Diego Lopes | 58c | 2,957$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.01 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…4b9cbacked Diego Lopes | 53c | 2,894$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Diego Lopes | 49c | 2,822$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.16 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Diego Lopes | 60c | 2,796$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.34 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Steve Garcia | 40c | 2,786$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.66 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Diego Lopes | 52c | 2,759$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.81 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Steve Garcia | 43c | 2,748$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.49 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Steve Garcia win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.