UFC · resolved market
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd76a1d04e53937a20728ba8383b2474378cee6b18842acd75dc8d4cc0c7dbc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 70c | 1,464$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.38 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Yes | 29c | 1,100$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 60c | 967.63$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.09 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 71c | 685.77$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.05 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 68c | 533.66$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.89 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 71c | 403.18$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.19 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…1bb1backed Yes | 41c | 402$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 32cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dd…12c3backed Yes | 33c | 243.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 7c | 216.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Yes | 29c | 195.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.52 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 32c | 152.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…daf3backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…9583backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…5479backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…c64ebacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0ddabacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +285.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…324bbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 70c | 92.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd7…147fbacked Yes | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked No | 70c | 75.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9000…6adcbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…6103backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +160%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf013…5483backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8f…006dbacked Yes | 46c | 53.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +209.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e61…230abacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bc…a8fabacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c3a1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +217.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…57aabacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…658bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff4…c614backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 68c | 21.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 69c | 20.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)Diego Lopes won
- Will Steve Garcia win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.