UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x151b665d6a7ee438872e723a553bd7642bacf5f0ca05ec833162b36e9baa868d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf438…9559backed Yes | 34c | 2,532$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.6 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa476…8cfcbacked No | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.15 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 68c | 1,473$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.09 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 32c | 1,300$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.12 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 66c | 909.09$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.09 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…ae6fbacked No | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.69 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 65c | 310.17$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 62c | 291.11$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Yes | 24c | 290.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 38c | 274.66$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 39c | 255.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 223$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed No | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 42c | 212.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 48c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 37c | 163.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 61c | 157.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 151.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd350…151dbacked No | 66c | 151.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 58c | 134.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 65c | 134.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…38dbbacked Yes | 53c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 66c | 119.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 63c | 96.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 64c | 94.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc861…ba40backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Yes | 24c | 76.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed No | 66c | 76.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Yes | 24c | 72.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes | 33c | 66.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b9…1d4dbacked No | 67c | 66.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 36c | 66.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…892ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…14c0backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…927fbacked No | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e8…896cbacked Yes | 35c | 39.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cc…ed79backed No | 66c | 37.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Yes | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd7…147fbacked No | 67c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…04f0backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…997ebacked No | 69c | 27.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked No | 63c | 25.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe1…af91backed No | 68c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)Diego Lopes won
- Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Steve Garcia win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.