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Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,790,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,790,362 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,918 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0222…8ff7backed No33c3,539,032$1,169,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369,234.56933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Yes66c964,686$636,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636,692.44683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+99%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3cc6…9df6backed Yes71c701,500$498,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498,064.862138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes68c535,711$363,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363,895.046,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes67c329,975$221,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,927.622,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No31c319,999$99,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220,79920140.8%82 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed No29c200,186$58,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,627.72657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+55.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Yes69c198,342$137,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137,153.1828242.2%119 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No30c187,998$56,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131,494.2616848.8%82 W · 86 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes66c175,000$115,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115,50024846.8%116 W · 132 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes68c156,224$107,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107,002.3651750.1%259 W · 258 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No31c149,571$45,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,768.724146.9%113 W · 128 L+21.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes68c134,349$91,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,333.892,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes69c125,920$87,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,0241,14642.8%490 W · 656 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8372…5223backed Yes69c117,681$81,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,2006857.4%39 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes68c114,249$77,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,519.944040%16 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No33c110,651$36,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,606.318950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05f6…8cecbacked Yes70c109,965$76,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,975.5560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes69c100,291$69,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,207.9614544.8%65 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff0b…befabacked Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No31c91,961$28,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,391.449141.8%38 W · 53 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No33c89,801$29,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,601.8612847.7%61 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes68c87,515$59,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,433.371,24449.4%615 W · 629 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No31c82,360$25,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,828.43450%17 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No32c82,016$26,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,431.219253.1%102 W · 90 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes67c80,000$53,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,60018958.7%111 W · 78 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked No31c71,932$22,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,633.263050%15 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No31c66,035$20,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,340.3510455.8%58 W · 46 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked No30c60,254$17,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,450.633060%18 W · 12 L+6.3wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+59%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Yes68c60,000$40,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,5001553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed No31c60,000$18,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,399.943557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked Yes69c54,058$37,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,300.014065%26 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No32c49,041$15,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,479.0310335%36 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes64c48,019$30,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,907.752,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes67c45,000$29,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,95035652.8%188 W · 168 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes68c43,571$29,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,599.9911349.6%56 W · 57 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes37c40,520$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00017634.1%60 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked No29c40,040$11,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,428.41361.5%8 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.31per pick31cpaid+82.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed Yes68c40,000$27,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,20014450.7%73 W · 71 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4eae…5095backed Yes69c39,463$27,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,229.691752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1993…0c02backed Yes69c37,800$26,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,270.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No31c37,243$11,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,737.4715944.7%71 W · 88 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed No32c37,141$11,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,253.0720758%120 W · 87 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Yes70c35,714$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00011445.6%52 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd75f…1dcebacked Yes69c34,401$23,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,736.69475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No29c33,500$9,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,7855547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb529…ad06backed No31c30,199$9,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,723.044748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Yes66c30,000$19,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,727.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x183d…1270backed Yes69c28,974$19,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,991.872030%6 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No31c28,855$8,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,909.913759.5%22 W · 15 L+7.3wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+47.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9a93…ed13backed Yes66c27,190$17,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,844.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeac4…c1ddbacked Yes70c27,121$18,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,984.37425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-61.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes67c26,797$17,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,954.7521253.8%114 W · 98 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed Yes69c25,586$17,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,649.343441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes59c24,806$14,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,544.7227235.7%97 W · 175 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Yes66c24,000$15,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,760911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-76.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No33c23,188$7,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,535.699856.1%55 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No32c23,000$7,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,639.915337.7%20 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed No32c22,200$7,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,0964652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+54.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked No31c22,000$6,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,179.952951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No31c21,900$6,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,1113148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed No31c21,600$6,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,9047542.7%32 W · 43 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No34c21,577$7,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,232.771,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a1…b6babacked Yes70c21,429$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0001361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No32c21,000$6,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,369.9515748.4%76 W · 81 L+13.8wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed No31c20,863$6,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,395.476142.6%26 W · 35 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes68c20,703$14,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,171.1330143.9%132 W · 169 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3a8…06d9backed No32c20,587$6,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,100.632147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+62.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes70c20,174$14,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,121.597229.2%21 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes68c20,000$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,600180%0 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed No30c18,555$5,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,981.173171%22 W · 9 L+7.7wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+53.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No32c18,099$5,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,326.834052.5%21 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2682…582abacked Yes68c18,000$12,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,317.025442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Yes67c17,460$11,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,698.21533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-33.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes49c17,141$8,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,418.524,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No32c16,710$5,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,316.075050%25 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7773…c91ebacked Yes70c16,351$11,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,445.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No31c16,141$5,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,093.67653.9%41 W · 35 L+9.0wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes67c16,000$10,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,72017745.8%81 W · 96 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes68c15,770$10,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,738.1918948.7%92 W · 97 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf032…ad8cbacked No31c15,016$4,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,401.24944.9%22 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes67c15,000$10,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0508939.3%35 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No32c14,420$4,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,873.785939%23 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed No32c14,125$4,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,6051675%12 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+67.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed No30c14,000$4,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,841.1816050.6%81 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d73…9aadbacked No31c13,000$4,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,969.811145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274c…da86backed Yes55c12,811$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b57…1f2ebacked No32c12,548$4,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,532.84757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x893a…29dcbacked Yes68c11,516$7,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,830.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes68c11,350$7,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,717.982339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2809…b26abacked No31c11,000$3,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,609.984252.4%22 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2838…e27fbacked No32c10,940$3,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,432.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+53.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked No30c10,377$3,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,263.745455.6%30 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ca…d535backed Yes68c10,294$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0005646.4%26 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No32c10,151$3,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,922.861,00446.3%465 W · 539 L+25.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No31c10,065$3,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,943.887035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed No48c10,050$4,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2268146.9%38 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…c73bbacked No30c10,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,0001090%9 W · 1 L+4.4wins+0.44per pick46cpaid+121.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed Yes69c10,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,9004148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Yes70c10,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0001060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.