Middle East · resolved market
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x182390641d3b1b47cc64274b9da290efd04221c586651ba190880713da6347d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,344,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,380,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,344,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 73c | 48,714$35,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,055.54 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 39c | 43,510$16,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,879.58 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…7f7bbacked Yes | 57c | 43,500$24,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,705 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 45c | 34,893$15,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,745.65 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 32,656$11,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,978.35 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 65c | 31,556$20,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,932.93 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes | 58c | 27,916$16,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,595.29 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 36c | 27,530$10,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,006.35 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…6909backed No | 43c | 26,395$11,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,349.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 59c | 25,329$14,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,403.08 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed Yes | 76c | 23,283$17,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,481.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 32c | 22,573$7,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,264.68 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed Yes | 65c | 22,305$14,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,795.91 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…7acabacked Yes | 57c | 22,000$12,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,482 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…acd3backed No | 43c | 22,000$9,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,482 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 73c | 21,677$15,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,893.13 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 42c | 21,314$9,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,012.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 33c | 20,941$6,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,888.22 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 52c | 20,059$10,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,529.02 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…9cbabacked Yes | 64c | 19,168$12,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,969.15 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d971backed No | 37c | 18,397$6,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,847.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 30c | 18,159$5,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,449.97 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6af…12ddbacked Yes | 57c | 18,000$10,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,740 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…646cbacked No | 43c | 18,000$7,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,740 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 48c | 17,163$8,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,262.9 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 41c | 16,856$6,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,944.98 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 33c | 16,226$5,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,367.19 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 61c | 15,169$9,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,967.67 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked Yes | 57c | 15,110$8,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,459.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 62c | 15,100$9,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,689.98 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 23c | 15,088$3,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,520.77 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 57c | 13,256$7,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,530.18 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 43c | 12,510$5,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,338.51 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…f8c9backed No | 47c | 12,256$5,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,727.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 75c | 12,181$9,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,092.49 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 45c | 11,608$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.79 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 25c | 11,339$2,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.1 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 35c | 11,248$3,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,974.68 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 41c | 11,222$4,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,563.25 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed Yes | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…0e8bbacked Yes | 39c | 10,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,149.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 52c | 10,000$5,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,768.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc721…4785backed No | 43c | 9,900$4,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,257 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d772backed Yes | 79c | 9,508$7,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked Yes | 79c | 8,662$6,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.56 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 49c | 8,421$4,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,125.5 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 71c | 8,298$5,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,384.81 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 75c | 8,012$6,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 56c | 7,724$4,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,385.33 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a18…6ffabacked Yes | 49c | 7,648$3,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,883.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed Yes | 73c | 7,595$5,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 49c | 7,216$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…2209backed No | 43c | 7,200$3,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,096 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…2cadbacked Yes | 44c | 6,712$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,741.79 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed No | 53c | 6,680$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,566.37 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d312backed Yes | 54c | 6,574$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,048.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 4c | 6,378$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.91 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed No | 43c | 6,279$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,704.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed No | 35c | 5,975$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…28dfbacked Yes | 61c | 5,917$3,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,296.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f22…4767backed No | 34c | 5,899$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…4807backed Yes | 45c | 5,898$2,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,249.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed No | 57c | 5,672$3,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,218.27 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 23c | 5,530$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.45 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1890…20ebbacked Yes | 64c | 5,515$3,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…1e66backed Yes | 63c | 5,500$3,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…1b34backed Yes | 60c | 5,371$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,148.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 40c | 5,328$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.4 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 53c | 5,083$2,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.54 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d8…a786backed No | 36c | 4,950$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 52c | 4,900$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,344.99 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed Yes | 75c | 4,861$3,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.95 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 53c | 4,738$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.95 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 57c | 4,702$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.92 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed Yes | 51c | 4,666$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.51 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…8bd9backed Yes | 65c | 4,510$2,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.32 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…56d0backed Yes | 68c | 4,487$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked Yes | 74c | 4,400$3,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.15 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 46c | 4,350$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.87 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4117…bf12backed No | 51c | 4,178$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b8…5e00backed No | 0c | 4,169$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb91b…a805backed Yes | 43c | 4,100$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,337 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…79c9backed No | 57c | 4,100$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,337 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes | 44c | 4,046$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 65c | 4,030$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.05 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 69c | 3,997$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.02 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 52c | 3,992$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.59 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 77c | 3,947$3,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.71 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 75c | 3,927$2,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.92 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 44c | 3,875$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.61 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…0d38backed Yes | 66c | 3,865$2,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.62 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…463bbacked Yes | 41c | 3,859$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,271.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e03…b1d0backed Yes | 37c | 3,709$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed Yes | 66c | 3,707$2,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.04 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8432…8360backed Yes | 54c | 3,688$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 56c | 3,600$2,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.99 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 56c | 3,575$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.07 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked No | 39c | 3,574$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.35 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed No | 42c | 3,553$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.87 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.