TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,344,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,380,481

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,344,394 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes73c48,714$35,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,055.5416831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No39c43,510$16,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,879.586532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cc3…7f7bbacked Yes57c43,500$24,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,7051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No45c34,893$15,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,745.6537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No37c32,656$11,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,978.3564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes65c31,556$20,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,932.9316638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes58c27,916$16,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,595.293354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No36c27,530$10,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,006.3536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd520…6909backed No43c26,395$11,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,349.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes59c25,329$14,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,403.0816553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed Yes76c23,283$17,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,481.22560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No32c22,573$7,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,264.684126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x058f…4883backed Yes65c22,305$14,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,795.913351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db1…7acabacked Yes57c22,000$12,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,4821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c54…acd3backed No43c22,000$9,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,48210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes73c21,677$15,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,893.136459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No42c21,314$9,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,012.281010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-87.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked No33c20,941$6,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,888.225238.5%20 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No52c20,059$10,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,529.025745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9952…9cbabacked Yes64c19,168$12,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,969.151770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+26.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x334b…d971backed No37c18,397$6,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,847.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No30c18,159$5,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,449.9735631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6af…12ddbacked Yes57c18,000$10,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf879…646cbacked No43c18,000$7,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,74010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No48c17,163$8,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,262.951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No41c16,856$6,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,944.9816739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed No33c16,226$5,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,367.196026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes61c15,169$9,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,967.6748923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdef6…f63abacked Yes57c15,110$8,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,459.611353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+38.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes62c15,100$9,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,689.986066.7%40 W · 20 L+7.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No23c15,088$3,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,520.7721521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No57c13,256$7,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,530.1835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No43c12,510$5,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,338.515232.7%17 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc9c…f8c9backed No47c12,256$5,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,727.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes75c12,181$9,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,092.496755.2%37 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No45c11,608$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.7910335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No25c11,339$2,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,817.115629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No35c11,248$3,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,974.6838247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No41c11,222$4,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,563.2515436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1681…b1c7backed Yes64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6001369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ac4…0e8bbacked Yes39c10,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,149.951154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes52c10,000$5,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,768.54360.5%26 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc721…4785backed No43c9,900$4,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,25710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e0…d772backed Yes79c9,508$7,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.64683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa289…d95cbacked Yes79c8,662$6,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.562763%17 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No49c8,421$4,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,125.512654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes71c8,298$5,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,384.8120336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes75c8,012$6,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.56752.2%35 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes56c7,724$4,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,385.3319639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a18…6ffabacked Yes49c7,648$3,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,883.31855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c7b…bd59backed Yes73c7,595$5,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.964100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No49c7,216$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50017755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fb3…2209backed No43c7,200$3,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,09610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa206…2cadbacked Yes44c6,712$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,741.791414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed No53c6,680$3,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,566.374645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d1…d312backed Yes54c6,574$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,048.791855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+34.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No4c6,378$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.9140433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed No43c6,279$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,704.01475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b82…7a36backed No35c5,975$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.271145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…28dfbacked Yes61c5,917$3,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,296.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f22…4767backed No34c5,899$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd85b…4807backed Yes45c5,898$2,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.95540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed No57c5,672$3,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,218.273915.4%6 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed No23c5,530$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.458937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1890…20ebbacked Yes64c5,515$3,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.941266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9876…1e66backed Yes63c5,500$3,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.991181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73a8…1b34backed Yes60c5,371$3,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,148.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No40c5,328$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes53c5,083$2,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,396.5419648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d8…a786backed No36c4,950$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes52c4,900$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.992766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed Yes75c4,861$3,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.956956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes53c4,738$2,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.9510354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No57c4,702$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.923135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5060…a780backed Yes51c4,666$2,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275.512552%13 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e4e…8bd9backed Yes65c4,510$2,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.321283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+53.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4e13…56d0backed Yes68c4,487$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef7…21bebacked Yes74c4,400$3,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.153542.9%15 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes46c4,350$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.875347.2%25 W · 28 L+10.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4117…bf12backed No51c4,178$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.5740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28b8…5e00backed No0c4,169$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.963036.7%11 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+36.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb91b…a805backed Yes43c4,100$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f48…79c9backed No57c4,100$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,33710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes44c4,046$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes65c4,030$2,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.056936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4b…541bbacked No60c4,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-62.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes69c3,997$2,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.0228427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc157…728cbacked Yes52c3,992$2,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.598427.4%23 W · 61 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes77c3,947$3,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.7115541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes75c3,927$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.9220438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No44c3,875$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.6148630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd8…0d38backed Yes66c3,865$2,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.624057.5%23 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f82…463bbacked Yes41c3,859$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,271.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e03…b1d0backed Yes37c3,709$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.97333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed Yes66c3,707$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.044959.2%29 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8432…8360backed Yes54c3,688$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.18862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes56c3,600$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.9911545.2%52 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes56c3,575$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.0734143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9419…a40fbacked No39c3,574$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.352638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7818…d185backed No42c3,553$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.876149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.