TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,229,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,348,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,229,538 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 7,010 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa253…c48fbacked Yes4c3,916,962$146,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146,278.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d1…b824backed Yes6c2,478,192$148,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148,880.2180%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes0c1,781,576$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,945.4510417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes13c1,192,373$158,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158,428.482218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23fa…6ff5backed Yes0c565,582$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c27…d050backed Yes11c486,836$53,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,558.393033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes9c467,580$43,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,129.056013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…433abacked Yes17c462,340$77,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,352.231428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+52.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf55c…0afebacked Yes10c435,594$41,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,878.991315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed No68c412,424$279,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133,185.41560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…5764backed Yes3c411,867$12,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,884.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+337.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce71…83bcbacked No76c410,867$310,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,646.41580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+41.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2128…60eebacked Yes3c376,357$11,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c358,558$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.424769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed Yes0c349,222$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.2280%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c314,395$71,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,316.0989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35fb…7801backed Yes15c308,102$46,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,125.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+99.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x355b…ef9fbacked Yes0c300,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1caa…46a0backed Yes4c298,387$10,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,624.571030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaadb…0cbfbacked Yes0c289,445$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.11450%2 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+2,135.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes4c277,126$10,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,499.442120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes17c273,581$46,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,886.212524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes18c239,804$42,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,611.655827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…89bbbacked Yes22c236,572$51,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,975.56633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c208,750$11,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,036.1642818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes10c205,401$20,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,285.2621521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes13c205,371$25,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,797.983823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes16c198,348$32,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,664.65944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+76.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes12c197,964$23,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,480.281717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81c2…ccb0backed Yes7c186,260$13,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,069.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Yes10c181,707$18,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,120.262544%11 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.27per pick17cpaid+134.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No80c180,801$143,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,892.433135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes15c177,197$26,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,782.753315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8361…e01bbacked Yes13c175,847$23,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,60020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c08…1ff6backed Yes4c166,990$6,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,802.212025%5 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+48.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes28c165,766$46,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,179.688045%36 W · 44 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64de…dcf0backed Yes8c162,353$13,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,048.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes16c152,765$24,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,261.9126423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd5b…605cbacked Yes0c144,385$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No73c141,523$103,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,995.196532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32b7…50b1backed Yes9c136,628$12,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,285.5970%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes9c135,844$12,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,729.5210634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes17c132,833$22,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,273.586011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No79c132,097$104,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,784.2528126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No77c129,866$100,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,423.964465.9%29 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No75c129,376$97,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,730.8351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No68c128,711$87,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,080.5715230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes2c124,605$2,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,766.613537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-25.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Yes2c119,038$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f90…90ccbacked Yes6c118,666$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,600540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes12c114,865$14,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,270.387032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f9e…8539backed Yes17c114,704$19,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,176.66540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes18c113,925$20,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,206.2322227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes5c112,378$5,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,887.1811527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d1c…b255backed Yes1c110,542$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f6…8160backed Yes6c109,066$6,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,491.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c7…b983backed Yes1c106,564$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5d…91d8backed No77c103,860$79,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,026.541662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes21c103,767$21,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,481.8413617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc96…b2a7backed Yes4c102,333$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed Yes3c100,652$3,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,497.32437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes16c99,413$16,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,003.597014.3%10 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c97,300$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.219119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8a…9506backed Yes29c96,137$27,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,9601338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes16c95,204$15,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,100.645851.7%30 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab0…e368backed Yes32c94,075$29,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,894.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9557…7136backed Yes16c93,257$14,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,793.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+4.5wins+0.41per pick13cpaid+1,012.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes15c93,127$13,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,857.7922627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes17c92,826$16,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,144.54456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe838…92fbbacked Yes11c92,385$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,5001827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d8a…548cbacked Yes15c90,816$13,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,900540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes20c88,882$18,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,184.8435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9cb…92b1backed Yes30c88,191$26,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,206.79540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+270.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked Yes24c87,913$21,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,303.761947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e3f…36b6backed Yes18c87,872$15,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,798.962030%6 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+86.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1913…b494backed Yes28c87,451$24,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,863.981233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes22c86,710$18,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,645.3840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Yes13c85,835$11,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,482.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe24…cc8bbacked Yes25c83,801$20,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,874.91714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes15c82,069$12,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,421.5235631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd782…9285backed Yes0c79,697$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes17c78,612$13,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,629.254337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e1f…7828backed Yes3c78,316$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.443724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+76.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No74c77,281$57,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,859.6937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x276b…e8b8backed Yes12c77,127$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,000714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+138.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a8…5204backed Yes7c76,660$5,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,241.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes4c76,293$2,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,897.2510226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed No63c75,634$47,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,016.184537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ad…f71abacked No73c75,012$55,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,003.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274a…2246backed Yes3c74,996$2,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,123.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-54.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes2c73,900$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.61254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No80c73,000$58,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,954.051346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes22c72,469$15,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,926.94643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e2…9a41backed Yes19c72,003$13,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,444.531030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab85…5da3backed Yes3c71,537$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9565…7658backed Yes4c70,851$2,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,716.920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d70…064ebacked Yes9c70,367$6,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,270.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes19c67,107$12,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,6213828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…2eeebacked Yes5c66,500$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,992.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36ae…3567backed Yes4c66,432$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900.424022.5%9 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-39.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.