World Politics · resolved market
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19304977d87e5b37f5c40719a3e935c136acd5705b1398afdb4179b0dbdda19b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 71c | 9,408$6,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked No | 32c | 2,029$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.96 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 8c | 1,556$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 3c | 785.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed No | 6c | 692$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked No | 12c | 652$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +208.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed No | 16c | 636.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 599.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 11c | 566$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa68b…d3adbacked No | 6c | 488.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed No | 12c | 479$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 80c | 441$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 20c | 441$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 13c | 430$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 21c | 408.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 402.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked No | 11c | 394$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd28…e994backed No | 8c | 384.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b0…cf23backed No | 9c | 378.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed No | 5c | 376.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…b217backed No | 20c | 365$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked Yes | 80c | 357$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +93%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 20c | 353$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +199.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 80c | 349$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…0ac6backed No | 9c | 348.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 80c | 348$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 20c | 336$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked No | 19c | 335$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3967…2816backed No | 6c | 332.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…62b1backed No | 17c | 332.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 29c | 292.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 13c | 276$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 11c | 264$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed No | 13c | 259$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 17c | 243$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…d38bbacked No | 5c | 238.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked No | 11c | 223$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +81%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 11c | 217$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 204.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…5629backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 12c | 177$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 168.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed No | 13c | 166$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 17c | 162$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 133.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7b…5448backed No | 8c | 129.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…c7b8backed No | 10c | 125.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…b30dbacked No | 11c | 110.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed No | 10c | 109.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…1417backed Yes | 56c | 89.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…a400backed No | 25c | 83.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 79.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 23c | 64.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfccf…46cebacked No | 16c | 63.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 22c | 63.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf761…db41backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 53c | 51.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 42c | 37.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 40c | 30.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…1c87backed No | 55c | 27.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f72backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…3f46backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 58c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m?this page
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be at least 6m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 3.5m and 4m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 3m and 3.5m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 4.5m and 5m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 4m and 4.5m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 5.5m and 6m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 5m and 5.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.