World Politics · resolved market
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 3.5m and 4m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf81a515dfef51d07bfd367ba003053d68e83deaf6f079bb9067020ec086662ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,422 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2586…f071backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2bf6backed Yes | 2c | 2,535$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,515$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,899$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,656$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…32cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,566$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbd…5c62backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…aaa2backed Yes | 1c | 1,009$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…887cbacked Yes | 4c | 487.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 210.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 181.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…1c87backed Yes | 20c | 59.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 3.5m and 4m?this page
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be at least 6m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 3m and 3.5m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 4.5m and 5m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 4m and 4.5m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 5.5m and 6m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 5m and 5.5m?No won
- Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.