UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9692d50b0da9c547c3c3f1fa127e2381e599514920f17e1a92f9c35944e4cc21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ivan Erslanof Tuco Tokkos, Ivan Erslan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $490,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $521,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 329 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Ivan Erslan | 60c | 112,211$67,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,884.2 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 100,000$40,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,999.97 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Ivan Erslan | 59c | 60,281$35,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,692.55 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 50,000$20,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,499.12 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 40,000$16,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,300 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Ivan Erslan | 60c | 27,815$16,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,193.65 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…d642backed Ivan Erslan | 74c | 18,500$13,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,767.11 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Tuco Tokkos | 1c | 16,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 13,650$5,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,460 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Ivan Erslan | 60c | 13,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 12,500$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tuco Tokkos | 22c | 12,024$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,669.57 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Ivan Erslan | 59c | 12,000$7,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,919.95 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Ivan Erslan | 59c | 10,655$6,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,368.56 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…9d3dbacked Tuco Tokkos | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 10,000$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,100 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Tuco Tokkos | 39c | 8,846$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Tuco Tokkos | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Ivan Erslan | 59c | 7,320$4,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,001.2 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Tuco Tokkos | 38c | 6,050$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.05 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Ivan Erslan | 59c | 6,000$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tuco Tokkos | 39c | 5,462$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.8 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…b730backed Ivan Erslan | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.99 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Tuco Tokkos | 38c | 4,549$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.54 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Tuco Tokkos | 12c | 4,306$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.08 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Ivan Erslan | 62c | 4,000$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Ivan Erslan | 59c | 3,774$2,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.25 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 3,354$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.45 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Tuco Tokkos | 32c | 2,840$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.93 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 2,475$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89da…a6c2backed Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 2,261$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 2,195$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.84 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b4…f97ebacked Tuco Tokkos | 26c | 2,143$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.26 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Ivan Erslan | 61c | 2,105$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.03 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed Tuco Tokkos | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Ivan Erslan | 60c | 1,991$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.56 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tuco Tokkos | 36c | 1,949$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.54 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Tuco Tokkos | 34c | 1,935$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.87 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Tuco Tokkos | 23c | 1,839$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.83 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 1,759$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 1,671$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef50…e3bdbacked Ivan Erslan | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Ivan Erslan | 61c | 1,603$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.16 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Tuco Tokkos | 39c | 1,538$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Tuco Tokkos | 42c | 1,502$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Ivan Erslan | 60c | 1,422$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.92 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Ivan Erslan | 59c | 1,225$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.25 | 178 | 51.7%92 W · 86 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Tuco Tokkos | 32c | 1,143$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.76 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Ivan Erslan | 57c | 1,114$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.22 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…f31ebacked Tuco Tokkos | 43c | 1,080$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Tuco Tokkos | 42c | 1,056$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.27 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Tuco Tokkos | 32c | 1,000$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.84 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Tuco Tokkos | 39c | 999.98$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Tuco Tokkos | 51c | 974.1$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.79 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Ivan Erslan | 56c | 923.58$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.52 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Tuco Tokkos | 39c | 917$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.63 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Tuco Tokkos | 23c | 870$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Tuco Tokkos | 27c | 807.14$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.07 | 281 | 43.1%121 W · 160 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Ivan Erslan | 50c | 796.41$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.41 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tuco Tokkos | 25c | 788.07$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Ivan Erslan | 59c | 764.39$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.58 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Ivan Erslan | 59c | 762$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.42 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…ad01backed Tuco Tokkos | 39c | 750$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Ivan Erslan | 59c | 732$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.12 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Tuco Tokkos | 42c | 689.83$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.73 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Tuco Tokkos | 42c | 683.75$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…3b17backed Tuco Tokkos | 29c | 682.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 678.55$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…8618backed Ivan Erslan | 48c | 677.08$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.08 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…5ff5backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 676.65$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2744…7e85backed Ivan Erslan | 67c | 667.73$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…5f4abacked Tuco Tokkos | 35c | 660.16$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.43 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Tuco Tokkos | 34c | 657.17$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Ivan Erslan | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbc…962ebacked Tuco Tokkos | 15c | 653.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…56e0backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 621.12$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…e672backed Ivan Erslan | 59c | 609.9$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +66%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Tuco Tokkos | 30c | 606.25$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.76 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…41bdbacked Ivan Erslan | 58c | 604.98$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.09 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Ivan Erslan | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…53b0backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdd…3f80backed Tuco Tokkos | 19c | 599.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Ivan Erslan | 61c | 593.51$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…ab32backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 584.35$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316b…5d97backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 580.21$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Tuco Tokkos | 25c | 575.67$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.61 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Tuco Tokkos | 40c | 575$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Ivan Erslan | 61c | 550$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 545.12$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.59 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed99…2677backed Ivan Erslan | 61c | 530.23$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.79 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b9…da59backed Tuco Tokkos | 41c | 525.23$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Tuco Tokkos win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.