UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5ea5f68912939f3c7cd32d2260e68daf635198388e8693f3587c44dd4e15a8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnold Allenof Arnold Allen, Melquizael Costa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,704,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,738,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,704,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 718 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Arnold Allen | 54c | 629,643$338,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291,292.43 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 270,059$125,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125,827.7 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 175,000$80,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,500 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Melquizael Costa | 42c | 104,554$43,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,456.4 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…0252backed Arnold Allen | 73c | 101,851$74,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,803.08 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Arnold Allen | 53c | 100,190$53,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,089.36 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Melquizael Costa | 47c | 76,381$35,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,653.97 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 68,234$32,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,070.08 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 66,666$30,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,666.36 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Melquizael Costa | 44c | 65,291$28,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,925.82 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Arnold Allen | 53c | 65,000$34,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,550 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 50,000$23,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,500 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Arnold Allen | 55c | 50,000$27,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,500 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 48,377$22,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,744.58 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 44,141$20,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,358.68 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Melquizael Costa | 1c | 40,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Melquizael Costa | 46c | 30,000$13,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,875 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Arnold Allen | 54c | 25,868$13,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,026.23 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Melquizael Costa | 48c | 21,812$10,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,366.48 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 21,634$9,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,972.86 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Melquizael Costa | 43c | 20,179$8,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,767.1 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Melquizael Costa | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Arnold Allen | 54c | 18,758$10,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,628.85 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Arnold Allen | 78c | 17,000$13,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,730 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…dc20backed Melquizael Costa | 2c | 15,124$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 15,020$6,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,909.06 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…8aeebacked Melquizael Costa | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 14,943$6,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,923.75 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Arnold Allen | 55c | 14,857$8,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,741.73 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 13,435$6,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,261.23 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…75cfbacked Arnold Allen | 53c | 13,229$7,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,217.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Arnold Allen | 54c | 12,000$6,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,520 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Melquizael Costa | 48c | 11,572$5,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,522.96 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…0386backed Arnold Allen | 59c | 11,270$6,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,650.72 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Arnold Allen | 53c | 10,000$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,750 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…b730backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Arnold Allen | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Arnold Allen | 61c | 10,000$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,899.99 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Melquizael Costa | 35c | 9,696$3,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,396.53 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Arnold Allen | 53c | 9,434$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,433.96 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…b4c0backed Arnold Allen | 54c | 9,109$4,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +240.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Arnold Allen | 53c | 9,000$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 8,360$3,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,929.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -7.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…0752backed Arnold Allen | 54c | 8,262$4,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…fd52backed Melquizael Costa | 13c | 8,063$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.85 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…9394backed Melquizael Costa | 19c | 7,160$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed Arnold Allen | 53c | 6,660$3,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,130.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arnold Allen | 55c | 6,588$3,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,952.57 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…d5d0backed Arnold Allen | 54c | 6,267$3,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed Melquizael Costa | 48c | 6,130$2,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f9…c2acbacked Arnold Allen | 54c | 6,068$3,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Arnold Allen | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.99 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Arnold Allen | 68c | 5,766$3,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.82 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…90eabacked Arnold Allen | 53c | 5,625$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,625.44 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 5,383$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.84 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Melquizael Costa | 46c | 4,904$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…fbbcbacked Arnold Allen | 53c | 4,254$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…c047backed Melquizael Costa | 48c | 4,101$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Melquizael Costa | 37c | 4,080$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.43 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Arnold Allen | 52c | 4,006$2,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.81 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Arnold Allen | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.99 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 3,950$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.16 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 3,830$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Arnold Allen | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Arnold Allen | 54c | 3,667$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.67 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…41ccbacked Melquizael Costa | 47c | 3,503$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Arnold Allen | 66c | 3,485$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 3,197$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.58 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…3e8fbacked Melquizael Costa | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Melquizael Costa | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9e27backed Melquizael Costa | 48c | 3,096$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 3,030$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Arnold Allen | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Arnold Allen | 52c | 2,943$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.59 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 2,766$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Melquizael Costa | 6c | 2,667$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Melquizael Costa | 13c | 2,481$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.12 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Arnold Allen | 54c | 2,463$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.73 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Melquizael Costa | 46c | 2,358$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.81 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Arnold Allen | 59c | 2,300$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…5f4abacked Melquizael Costa | 26c | 2,285$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…5c8dbacked Arnold Allen | 54c | 2,246$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 2,221$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.91 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Arnold Allen | 57c | 2,200$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.05 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Melquizael Costa | 47c | 2,150$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef50…e3bdbacked Melquizael Costa | 47c | 2,130$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Arnold Allen | 53c | 2,100$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…0cebbacked Melquizael Costa | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Arnold Allen | 52c | 2,010$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Melquizael Costa | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Arnold Allen | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Arnold Allen | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.99 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Arnold Allen | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.98 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Arnold Allen | 52c | 1,983$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.04 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b4…f97ebacked Arnold Allen | 76c | 1,981$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.79 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Arnold Allen | 54c | 1,939$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Arnold Allen | 70c | 1,821$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.43 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Melquizael Costa | 27c | 1,786$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.8 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Melquizael Costa win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.