UFC · resolved market
O/U 4.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70dee1d5618395d7614548ed22fb9c6cecf58a7705c65e3d84879a2e3f9f4b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 46c | 21,607$9,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,939.2 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 54c | 14,830$8,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,821.63 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Over | 53c | 2,947$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.29 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Over | 53c | 1,265$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.15 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…2079backed Over | 54c | 1,064$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 47c | 1,055$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 47c | 1,055$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.67 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Over | 54c | 1,037$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.04 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Under | 47c | 1,015$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 46c | 934.73$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.98 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 47c | 684.72$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.82 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…aedfbacked Over | 54c | 492.48$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 54c | 425.93$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.93 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 49c | 397.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.59 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 47c | 245.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Over | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 47c | 231.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…6b56backed Under | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 54c | 175.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 53c | 125.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 121.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 47c | 101.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…5f36backed Under | 51c | 97.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Under | 47c | 94.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Under | 49c | 93.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Under | 46c | 92.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 48c | 69.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…476ebacked Over | 54c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Over | 51c | 56.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 47cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…8c33backed Under | 47c | 55.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…4e79backed Over | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc55b…c88bbacked Over | 54c | 48.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Over | 54c | 45.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +39%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…8a71backed Under | 46c | 43.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 54c | 42.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…063dbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Over | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…faedbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 54c | 37.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Under | 41c | 30.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Over | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…9384backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked Over | 50c | 20.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 50c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…c5aebacked Over | 54c | 18.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 4.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)Arnold Allen won
- Will Melquizael Costa win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.