UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef4924add6f788e346e3632a0b614493b8ababd9d7b3981ff38128a836dc6e29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 60c | 829.47$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed No | 18c | 810.68$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 40c | 505$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked No | 54c | 480$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…0f22backed Yes | 49c | 314.01$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.75 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 51c | 305.28$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.06 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed No | 52c | 222.48$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 39c | 217.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed No | 65c | 100.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed No | 53c | 93.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…0035backed Yes | 55c | 90.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 47c | 87.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 53c | 60.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…82abbacked No | 51c | 58.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…0246backed Yes | 73c | 54.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed Yes | 53c | 49.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…4414backed No | 38c | 49.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 45c | 48.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed No | 53c | 47.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked No | 53c | 38.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 46c | 31.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 59c | 23.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)Arnold Allen won
- Will Melquizael Costa win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.