Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d3378d5c859b2f27173627df2edecb3c0c578eb5a0c977bbbef3ec86a7eb9e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,072,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,072,307 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 619 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dcb…8709backed No | 0c | 766,333$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…fbbbbacked No | 0c | 473,775$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.13 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…3715backed No | 6c | 279,168$16,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,296.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…aa56backed No | 0c | 241,768$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…e70fbacked No | 0c | 202,270$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…4ea5backed No | 0c | 199,999$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed No | 0c | 140,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…1efcbacked No | 0c | 140,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…c5c3backed No | 0c | 133,560$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.37 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…9c8bbacked No | 0c | 116,480$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed No | 0c | 105,713$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 0c | 93,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed No | 0c | 76,247$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.74 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 1c | 71,950$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.98 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…9ed9backed No | 0c | 70,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…70a4backed No | 0c | 69,766$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…2425backed No | 0c | 55,110$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.22 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…e8b8backed No | 0c | 55,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed No | 0c | 54,557$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed No | 0c | 48,311$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.61 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…9ae7backed No | 0c | 45,940$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…05a9backed No | 1c | 45,015$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 4c | 43,060$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…5651backed No | 3c | 38,684$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.23 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…aa56backed No | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 0c | 36,399$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7d…f2e9backed No | 0c | 35,870$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…b6b4backed No | 0c | 34,067$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda73…8e23backed No | 47c | 33,594$15,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,905.02 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed No | 0c | 31,250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 7c | 29,590$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.28 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c870backed No | 0c | 28,777$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…795abacked No | 0c | 27,370$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…27fbbacked No | 20c | 25,849$5,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,225.38 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 25,234$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…d680backed No | 0c | 24,991$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…e0e6backed No | 2c | 24,229$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.69 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…883abacked No | 0c | 23,726$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed No | 0c | 23,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed No | 0c | 21,417$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…592dbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…0b26backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed No | 2c | 19,487$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 1c | 17,668$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.03 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked No | 0c | 16,880$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked No | 0c | 16,760$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 6c | 16,457$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 5c | 16,360$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.15 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 15,398$2,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,636.89 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 10c | 15,326$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.59 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…f0c5backed No | 1c | 15,197$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…c118backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 0c | 15,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…3ad0backed No | 0c | 14,905$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 14,590$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,960.98 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359b…70eabacked No | 4c | 13,726$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…185dbacked No | 3c | 12,617$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…94b9backed No | 0c | 12,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 36c | 11,698$4,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,502.39 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 34c | 11,500$3,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,614.44 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe050…ccfebacked No | 0c | 11,420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x679d…6f07backed No | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 14c | 10,662$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.74 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked No | 0c | 10,400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef55…9eb9backed No | 0c | 10,024$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b7…4d8ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de1…e0debacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35c…b0cabacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4d…710dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08a…60a4backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…80aebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…6f90backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…b7cfbacked Yes | 32c | 9,696$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,594.71 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x561c…1625backed No | 4c | 9,477$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…0bb1backed No | 0c | 9,476$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…5fb6backed No | 3c | 9,382$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 5c | 9,361$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,901.45 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…2d75backed Yes | 2c | 8,943$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,742.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +1,017.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…3849backed No | 0c | 8,670$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…6257backed No | 2c | 8,598$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.23 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…0593backed Yes | 8c | 8,479$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,824.6 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 14c | 8,228$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.68 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 25c | 7,742$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.67 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…049dbacked No | 9c | 7,575$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed No | 0c | 7,246$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…22cabacked No | 0c | 7,052$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 12c | 7,000$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 7c | 6,906$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.21 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…a8ffbacked No | 0c | 6,720$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…f1e9backed No | 0c | 6,600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 2c | 6,537$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,383.73 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 7c | 6,384$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,928.07 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…d631backed No | 10c | 6,211$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 0c | 6,113$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?this page
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?No won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.