Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87b6ada11fe345489acf34b993118ddc28bd4c632525a41d11be7b08b584793c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,011 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 282 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 18,358$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…22cabacked No | 0c | 10,819$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 2c | 9,400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…f400backed No | 0c | 7,135$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…1eabbacked No | 2c | 6,753$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 6c | 6,264$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.62 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd703…b62ebacked No | 0c | 5,891$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 4c | 5,550$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…9ae7backed No | 0c | 5,305$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 16c | 5,276$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.9 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 13c | 5,199$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.72 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…fbbbbacked No | 0c | 5,021$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 4,778$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 3c | 4,291$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 4c | 3,973$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.73 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed No | 7c | 3,792$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…ce46backed No | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…049dbacked No | 31c | 3,635$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 3c | 3,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 52c | 2,841$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.36 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 6c | 2,693$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 5c | 2,667$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…6257backed No | 2c | 2,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 24c | 2,437$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.98 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed No | 4c | 2,400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 4c | 2,261$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed No | 4c | 2,185$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4620…8ef9backed No | 19c | 2,176$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 1,949$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 3c | 1,820$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…ee63backed No | 1c | 1,786$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 44c | 1,763$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.74 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…26dabacked Yes | 58c | 1,726$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 26c | 1,712$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.69 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed No | 6c | 1,676$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 41c | 1,570$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.35 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 1,492$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.03 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 2c | 1,465$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 1,416$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…075fbacked No | 19c | 1,411$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 1,400$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,308$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.13 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3de1…8129backed No | 5c | 1,283$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca05…8481backed Yes | 47c | 1,226$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.73 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed No | 8c | 1,200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…7d90backed Yes | 77c | 1,172$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.66 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 39c | 1,018$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.88 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…fddcbacked Yes | 62c | 1,000$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 79c | 999.99$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.4 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…2faebacked Yes | 53c | 988.77$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc70…1a8dbacked No | 16c | 978.16$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.42per pick | 43cpaid | +133%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…993dbacked No | 14c | 899.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 74c | 899.29$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.77 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…8b84backed No | 8c | 887.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked No | 19c | 836.82$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.78 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa3…2477backed No | 12c | 832.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 6c | 820$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed No | 16c | 796.2$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked No | 2c | 795$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…620dbacked No | 8c | 725.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…7c39backed No | 14c | 709.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 11c | 638.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 48c | 625.55$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.55 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed No | 2c | 609.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…d7a6backed Yes | 72c | 568.54$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.54 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4048…4264backed No | 6c | 567.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc159…772fbacked Yes | 55c | 548.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5255…6e58backed No | 6c | 542.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…bf30backed Yes | 74c | 541.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed No | 4c | 540.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…d680backed Yes | 74c | 530.26$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.03 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 19c | 514.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 4c | 513.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e88…27b4backed No | 5c | 510.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 25c | 503.36$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.82 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…6cc0backed No | 12c | 500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +191%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cda…cee7backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 5c | 499.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked No | 29c | 499.96$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…e2aebacked No | 3c | 495.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 13c | 486.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 60c | 452.19$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.38 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 23c | 450$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 4c | 450$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed No | 52c | 442.27$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…8783backed No | 14c | 425.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 417.84$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.11 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8503…abddbacked Yes | 65c | 412.85$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.64 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…93b3backed No | 12c | 403.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 35c | 378.76$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 20c | 376.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed No | 13c | 374.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…36cfbacked Yes | 54c | 371.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…a78dbacked Yes | 41c | 362.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.61 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 72c | 361.37$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd780…e5bdbacked No | 10c | 349.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 61c | 347.4$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.2 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 337$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?this page
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?No won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.