Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1cb9d93988cabaa450aba016cdd430031f6cfe9e0ac6ca51e15b7d71deb55a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $552,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $552,252 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 400 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf562…4099backed No | 0c | 100,440$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…a78dbacked No | 0c | 49,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed No | 0c | 31,500$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…70a4backed No | 0c | 16,983$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…fbbbbacked No | 9c | 14,950$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.75 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 13c | 10,129$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.46 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed No | 7c | 9,328$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 8,372$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.84 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…b6b4backed No | 35c | 8,270$2,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked No | 21c | 6,684$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed No | 14c | 6,416$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.28 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 7c | 5,450$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.82 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 22c | 5,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 49c | 4,763$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,326.9 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 4,452$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.94 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 23c | 4,410$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.49 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…47edbacked No | 12c | 3,907$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 15c | 3,635$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…049dbacked No | 21c | 3,402$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed No | 35c | 3,249$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.95 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 73c | 3,234$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.19 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa3…2477backed Yes | 78c | 2,390$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.79 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 1c | 2,262$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 60c | 2,151$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.54 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…5651backed No | 19c | 2,123$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.66 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed No | 20c | 2,051$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.56 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 11c | 1,888$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 1,860$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,843$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.94 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 10c | 1,739$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.65 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41d…577cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,685$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.81 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 27c | 1,659$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.11 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce2d…f266backed No | 1c | 1,645$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 1,570$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.8 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 29c | 1,568$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.91 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked No | 15c | 1,559$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.68 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61da…0de5backed No | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 1,469$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 73c | 1,456$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.13 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…6fdebacked No | 7c | 1,441$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…fe89backed No | 1c | 1,427$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…7b0ebacked No | 8c | 1,420$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,400$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…b176backed No | 7c | 1,274$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed No | 20c | 1,246$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.13 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked No | 4c | 1,241$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…b0debacked No | 17c | 1,209$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 48c | 1,204$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 79c | 1,200$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.3 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…fa18backed No | 7c | 1,185$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked No | 24c | 1,177$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.93 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed No | 22c | 1,154$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 5c | 1,137$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 4c | 1,131$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 4c | 1,051$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…a6e5backed No | 10c | 1,050$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…feb9backed No | 2c | 1,046$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf04c…b823backed No | 30c | 1,043$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9606backed No | 23c | 1,029$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…116fbacked No | 33c | 1,017$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…8b84backed No | 11c | 1,004$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 50c | 1,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.32 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…6257backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…36cfbacked Yes | 78c | 982.13$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…9d4fbacked No | 14c | 974.72$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked No | 49c | 972.73$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.19 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…d680backed Yes | 65c | 967.46$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 14c | 948.48$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed No | 16c | 904.29$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…4d66backed No | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 21c | 899.91$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.89 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…aa3cbacked Yes | 54c | 887.52$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.26 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 18c | 887.06$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked No | 23c | 867.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 54c | 824.63$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.85 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 15c | 824.57$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…9309backed Yes | 49c | 813.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.93 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5233…0d83backed Yes | 63c | 806.95$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 42c | 806.02$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…fd70backed No | 18c | 805.9$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6d…f391backed No | 2c | 802.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 10c | 796.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…04f5backed No | 12c | 780.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 14c | 757.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…94e7backed No | 16c | 740.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…bf30backed Yes | 53c | 660.68$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…5909backed No | 18c | 650$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8503…abddbacked Yes | 77c | 649.99$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…136abacked Yes | 76c | 648.76$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed Yes | 71c | 641.04$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.21 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 50c | 632.09$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.09 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 39c | 602.28$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.38 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…7995backed No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e8…b293backed No | 17c | 575.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 32c | 567.62$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.76 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 14c | 550.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Yes | 76c | 549.99$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?this page
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?No won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.