Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ec388b5717ed05da3e00e7d0fcc5cd2ac77fa1cadb1c0441cc2672a98c5b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $422,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $422,824 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f8…9f7ebacked No | 1c | 30,876$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 0c | 23,997$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 12,845$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 10,864$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…19f7backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked No | 1c | 7,569$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 6,821$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.76 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 13c | 6,411$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.31 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 12c | 6,291$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.57 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 3c | 5,504$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.11 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…132fbacked No | 1c | 5,360$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…049dbacked No | 28c | 5,174$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…8b84backed No | 5c | 4,709$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed No | 7c | 4,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5b30backed No | 2c | 4,206$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…e3fdbacked No | 1c | 4,184$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…0720backed No | 2c | 4,051$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 1c | 4,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 32c | 3,954$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.01 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 49c | 3,873$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.8 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 6c | 3,860$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.41 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…f0c5backed No | 1c | 3,759$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…0f4ebacked No | 27c | 3,700$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…48edbacked No | 3c | 3,454$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe614…680fbacked No | 3c | 3,382$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0eb…b77cbacked No | 3c | 3,199$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 39c | 3,196$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.2 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 18c | 3,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed No | 6c | 3,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.51 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…e486backed No | 4c | 2,795$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked No | 6c | 2,700$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…0c72backed No | 2c | 2,555$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…ea0ebacked No | 2c | 2,480$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315e…9b06backed No | 3c | 2,428$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01c…3372backed No | 1c | 2,400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 8c | 2,341$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.14 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 2,158$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed No | 5c | 2,113$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 30c | 2,049$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.62 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…6703backed No | 1c | 2,016$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 1c | 2,003$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 5c | 2,003$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 3c | 2,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 2c | 1,956$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 20c | 1,934$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.92 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…6d8abacked No | 1c | 1,933$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…323ebacked No | 2c | 1,909$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 1,810$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 75c | 1,810$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.25 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41d…577cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,692$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39e6…7469backed No | 4c | 1,675$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…4c52backed Yes | 66c | 1,653$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…0d2dbacked No | 2c | 1,637$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 62c | 1,623$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 47c | 1,576$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.47 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…cae4backed No | 7c | 1,546$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed No | 1c | 1,515$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x129e…c0e8backed No | 2c | 1,451$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…b404backed Yes | 71c | 1,442$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x704a…662dbacked No | 2c | 1,375$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca05…8481backed Yes | 53c | 1,369$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,344$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.03 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…a8e6backed No | 1c | 1,328$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 3c | 1,323$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75a…a6d8backed No | 4c | 1,234$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed No | 2c | 1,162$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…fbbbbacked No | 3c | 1,144$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 6c | 1,124$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 4c | 1,110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…89f5backed No | 5c | 1,094$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed No | 14c | 1,080$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…55cebacked No | 9c | 1,026$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…d988backed No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…7880backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…6257backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 12c | 999.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 78c | 987.21$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.06 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…98dcbacked Yes | 71c | 979.03$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 78c | 934.21$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.03 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 78c | 927.61$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.66 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed No | 5c | 916.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e4…3d9bbacked No | 2c | 896.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…2faebacked Yes | 58c | 896.2$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…df05backed No | 2c | 889.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8503…abddbacked Yes | 69c | 886$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.66 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef1…9f4ebacked No | 9c | 822.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…c9b5backed No | 12c | 821.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed No | 25c | 805.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed No | 32c | 799.95$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.98 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2444…f88cbacked No | 3c | 797.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…87bcbacked Yes | 73c | 789.68$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…c118backed No | 1c | 785.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 8c | 760$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 3c | 760$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…73d9backed No | 1c | 756.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e20…0335backed No | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a7…57f1backed No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?this page
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?No won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.