Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x463740b94f81e794eff8892c50fc221a2e774a8a4484284752ee73149ffd46d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $398,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb0e…33afbacked No | 1c | 38,836$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 3c | 38,500$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.28 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…46e5backed No | 3c | 26,678$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524e…fe92backed No | 0c | 26,029$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 2c | 21,780$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.88 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +10.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 1c | 18,673$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.93 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 4c | 17,893$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.4 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 1c | 9,050$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 2c | 8,400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 7,171$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919b…1e50backed No | 0c | 7,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 2c | 6,628$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.74 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…049dbacked No | 4c | 5,764$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 8c | 4,491$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.02 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x275a…4d33backed No | 1c | 4,172$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 1c | 4,065$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 3c | 4,026$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 5c | 3,795$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.56 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd272…5af2backed No | 0c | 3,735$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 6c | 3,579$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aff…5f17backed No | 2c | 3,504$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 5c | 3,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…7bb1backed No | 4c | 2,842$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 4c | 2,713$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4044…8de5backed No | 8c | 2,250$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 5c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed No | 5c | 1,873$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,853$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213f…2dfabacked No | 4c | 1,710$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 1,710$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed No | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,407$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…0b6abacked No | 5c | 1,356$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed No | 4c | 1,161$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…0f44backed No | 3c | 1,100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…9d02backed No | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…0593backed No | 2c | 1,003$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…077bbacked No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked No | 1c | 899.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404b…de15backed No | 1c | 887.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…4d01backed No | 2c | 828.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…5822backed No | 7c | 713.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 8c | 687.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed No | 4c | 678.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked No | 3c | 658.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 7c | 604.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…116fbacked No | 2c | 582.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…8e2ebacked No | 5c | 525.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…0a24backed No | 5c | 418.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 4c | 398.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 4c | 355.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…eaddbacked No | 3c | 346.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked No | 4c | 302.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked No | 4c | 279.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…f732backed No | 5c | 237.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…b213backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 163.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673a…e805backed No | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…6639backed Yes | 66c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?this page
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?No won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.