Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a50b19d1e20072ff36ec4ca6801fed3acd0b1d1e3e607211104a1237b129efb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,837,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,837,675 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f0…c5c3backed No | 0c | 230,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…3d98backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +1,095.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 0c | 163,412$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe336…6fcbbacked No | 0c | 157,662$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.02 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…e70fbacked No | 0c | 130,213$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…2425backed No | 0c | 125,252$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…fbbbbacked No | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…6257backed No | 1c | 73,399$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.78 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…e21fbacked No | 0c | 72,160$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…70a4backed No | 0c | 67,305$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15cd…f483backed No | 0c | 64,667$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed No | 0c | 61,067$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…8709backed No | 0c | 58,459$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 1c | 56,986$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.52 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…6df6backed No | 0c | 54,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…3b48backed No | 0c | 47,451$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed No | 1c | 42,610$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.88 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…f0c5backed No | 1c | 36,590$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…23bdbacked No | 0c | 36,517$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 35,482$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027d…6a30backed No | 3c | 35,245$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 0c | 31,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…049dbacked No | 6c | 27,072$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 6c | 26,923$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.29 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…90f1backed No | 0c | 26,382$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 13c | 25,801$3,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,321.8 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…aa28backed No | 1c | 25,159$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 2c | 24,593$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 18c | 22,249$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,082.3 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 15c | 21,183$3,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,221.12 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 8c | 20,289$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.36 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 0c | 20,127$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed No | 0c | 20,095$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…22cabacked No | 0c | 20,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 10c | 18,668$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.94 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…5651backed No | 2c | 17,581$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked No | 0c | 17,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…69f6backed No | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb7…3b83backed Yes | 77c | 16,781$12,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,845.35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…4721backed No | 7c | 16,722$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked No | 19c | 15,775$3,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,002.67 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed No | 0c | 15,100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…767dbacked No | 0c | 12,722$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…33afbacked No | 24c | 12,261$2,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,895.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed No | 0c | 11,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561c…1625backed No | 0c | 11,425$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed No | 36c | 11,044$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,950 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked No | 0c | 11,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…7b0ebacked No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…d680backed No | 0c | 10,305$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…ea0ebacked No | 0c | 10,167$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 0c | 10,001$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…592dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee58…a8a9backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a5…160bbacked No | 0c | 9,945$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…883abacked No | 0c | 9,603$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 3c | 9,381$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.31 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked No | 11c | 9,219$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.51 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 8,849$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.1 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 6c | 8,587$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.67 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 8,449$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 34c | 7,963$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.4 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…9309backed No | 0c | 7,867$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…9fc9backed No | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec81…0a74backed No | 4c | 6,300$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…9410backed No | 0c | 6,085$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426c…cc45backed Yes | 76c | 6,079$4,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd35…66c2backed No | 0c | 6,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd45f…d760backed No | 1c | 5,866$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27d0…7943backed No | 4c | 5,763$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae9…974cbacked No | 0c | 5,627$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked No | 0c | 5,554$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed No | 7c | 5,347$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.1 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 11c | 5,040$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.42 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 10c | 5,000$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.06 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa68f…5f55backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c870backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 14c | 4,997$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.69 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 4,818$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.05 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c3…e645backed No | 1c | 4,689$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 0c | 4,600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…be12backed No | 0c | 4,467$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 13c | 4,114$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.14 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…10e2backed Yes | 74c | 4,055$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 0c | 3,700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…42f8backed No | 1c | 3,603$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 7c | 3,500$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.32 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…46e5backed No | 6c | 3,466$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…fca9backed No | 3c | 3,369$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed Yes | 70c | 3,162$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.52 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 13c | 3,038$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.67 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…ba75backed Yes | 65c | 2,910$1,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 2c | 2,899$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked No | 1c | 2,836$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed Yes | 70c | 2,835$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 1c | 2,808$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?this page
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?No won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.