Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb98f79bbe554133c77057f8e947f72e1d591276a6b47540141152bb8995920b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $510,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $510,185 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 0c | 234,626$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.43 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed No | 0c | 24,707$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 10c | 12,359$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.34 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed No | 14c | 9,749$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.84 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 7,454$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.94 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed No | 12c | 6,797$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.86 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 4c | 5,994$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.26 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 5c | 5,862$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 78c | 5,353$4,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.59 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…049dbacked No | 14c | 4,833$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…fa18backed No | 16c | 4,459$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…10e2backed Yes | 70c | 4,259$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 32c | 3,967$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.7 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 3,800$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 3,613$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.28 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…f732backed No | 4c | 3,018$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…a0d0backed Yes | 71c | 2,826$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 24c | 2,452$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.81 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…20a5backed No | 18c | 2,327$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 22c | 2,241$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.74 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 15c | 2,199$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.7 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 22c | 2,177$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.45 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 67c | 2,088$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.54 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 32c | 1,925$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.54 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 69c | 1,913$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.96 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…22e4backed Yes | 78c | 1,906$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.02 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 36c | 1,840$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.75 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 16c | 1,838$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.1 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…00c5backed No | 31c | 1,837$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 24c | 1,748$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.59 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7806…6594backed No | 11c | 1,740$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…3b7dbacked No | 36c | 1,696$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 1,575$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked No | 32c | 1,539$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 16c | 1,510$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.7 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…7c98backed Yes | 73c | 1,466$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.9 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 13c | 1,401$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.52 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…d050backed Yes | 73c | 1,367$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.52 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…6257backed No | 18c | 1,303$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.66 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 68c | 1,264$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.96 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b15…36a5backed No | 10c | 1,176$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 23c | 1,173$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.34 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 15c | 1,170$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.23 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 37c | 1,149$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.74 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…e0e6backed No | 6c | 1,124$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,114$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.82 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,100$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.99 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,067$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…883abacked No | 2c | 1,045$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…fcd4backed No | 25c | 1,042$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 63c | 1,032$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.57 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked No | 2c | 1,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed No | 8c | 914.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 55c | 906.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.44 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked No | 29c | 861.01$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.2 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…b0debacked No | 18c | 823.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…6b6abacked Yes | 75c | 823.18$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…5651backed No | 43c | 821.7$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.39 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…9517backed Yes | 75c | 784.55$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 4c | 775.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4067backed Yes | 71c | 746.01$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.31 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…9309backed Yes | 54c | 743.17$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.17 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…7397backed No | 34c | 738.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec29…2867backed Yes | 58c | 727.55$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked No | 11c | 717.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c94…0159backed No | 11c | 700$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed No | 17c | 700$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 20c | 698.85$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.51 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked No | 20c | 681.18$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…3494backed No | 15c | 677.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…993dbacked Yes | 78c | 648.35$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 19c | 627$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked No | 4c | 621.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 16c | 610$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b0…b26bbacked Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 72c | 599.99$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.51 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 32c | 599.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…eedfbacked No | 11c | 598.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked No | 39c | 578.09$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8a…5bd3backed No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 12c | 548.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd148…be31backed Yes | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9606backed Yes | 77c | 522.52$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked Yes | 65c | 520.57$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.58 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed No | 17c | 520$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 60c | 515.54$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 22c | 514.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…532abacked Yes | 73c | 498.99$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.84 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581c…d9dabacked No | 10c | 490$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f20…6a22backed No | 20c | 480.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 10c | 479.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…d718backed No | 5c | 465.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 456.27$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe89a…16a3backed Yes | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54f8…1f57backed Yes | 72c | 428.55$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…0945backed No | 9c | 410$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?this page
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?No won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.