Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a4e96623e5baf75e3a039b1fdae23b288f84333f8d3c1ae6dbfbf6075330325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,855,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,855,848 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,364 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e8e…507abacked Yes | 0c | 1,505,913$4,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,657.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…9ef0backed Yes | 0c | 968,005$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 932,445$9,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,653.99 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…8709backed Yes | 0c | 803,945$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 1c | 499,999$4,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,137.75 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 0c | 490,573$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 0c | 435,090$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.09 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…5ac8backed Yes | 0c | 413,152$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes | 0c | 372,624$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.28 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadea…50f7backed Yes | 0c | 305,820$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…3b51backed Yes | 0c | 297,090$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…15a6backed Yes | 0c | 260,267$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4b28backed Yes | 0c | 243,470$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8503…abddbacked Yes | 0c | 220,859$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.81 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes | 0c | 218,673$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…2ed7backed Yes | 4c | 217,356$9,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,537.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…8ca5backed Yes | 0c | 212,768$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc61…792fbacked Yes | 0c | 211,103$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…e70fbacked Yes | 0c | 208,652$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca05…8481backed Yes | 0c | 204,398$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cea…727fbacked Yes | 0c | 199,354$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…ee28backed Yes | 0c | 173,829$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 0c | 163,568$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.84 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78be…9218backed Yes | 0c | 158,880$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…87bcbacked Yes | 2c | 141,702$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…fbbbbacked Yes | 3c | 130,134$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,950.42 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…e917backed Yes | 0c | 129,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1563…95ddbacked Yes | 1c | 122,184$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…c5c3backed Yes | 1c | 116,763$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.59 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Yes | 0c | 113,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 112,044$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.36 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…9ed9backed Yes | 1c | 110,665$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b74…4127backed Yes | 0c | 107,567$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24b0…15f3backed Yes | 0c | 107,311$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…4054backed Yes | 0c | 106,860$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 7c | 102,283$7,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,459.23 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 1c | 101,925$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.99 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed Yes | 1c | 100,781$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.99 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…c3bbbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…ba56backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…aa6fbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked Yes | 0c | 99,230$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…60a5backed Yes | 0c | 95,624$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…2425backed Yes | 1c | 94,885$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa174…4a39backed Yes | 0c | 92,141$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…f606backed Yes | 1c | 89,290$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…1c11backed Yes | 0c | 80,070$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +587%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…309ebacked Yes | 0c | 78,559$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.05 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +497%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…5aaabacked Yes | 0c | 71,877$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.68 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…31bebacked Yes | 1c | 69,977$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 2c | 58,971$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.53 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…ed6dbacked Yes | 1c | 57,167$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 1cpaid | +2,534.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…f0b1backed Yes | 4c | 55,635$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…6071backed Yes | 0c | 55,243$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4121…7499backed Yes | 0c | 54,690$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.48 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…b62ebacked Yes | 0c | 54,575$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089a…8486backed Yes | 1c | 52,697$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…03e9backed Yes | 1c | 52,439$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…98dcbacked Yes | 0c | 49,871$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6101…b17ebacked Yes | 0c | 48,730$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…3a32backed Yes | 4c | 46,298$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 1c | 45,889$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.46 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff3…1216backed Yes | 1c | 44,533$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 11c | 42,862$4,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,668.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…56e7backed Yes | 0c | 42,667$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…2f19backed Yes | 0c | 42,339$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267a…c1cdbacked Yes | 0c | 40,091$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ce…2c56backed Yes | 0c | 39,970$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 0c | 38,700$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…27fbbacked Yes | 3c | 38,339$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.74 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 0c | 37,820$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +428.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…1407backed Yes | 0c | 37,274$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1662…bffebacked Yes | 1c | 33,756$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 14c | 33,148$4,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,506.67 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 27c | 32,830$8,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,934.25 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc477…7c48backed Yes | 0c | 31,297$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 0c | 31,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…e9bebacked Yes | 1c | 30,885$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.14 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf6…ddd7backed Yes | 0c | 30,848$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30e…0dc3backed Yes | 1c | 30,767$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed Yes | 0c | 30,624$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…1bcfbacked Yes | 3c | 30,139$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…c15fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,477$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +109%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…0b26backed Yes | 5c | 29,273$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 28,729$6,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,318.96 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b98…7f1dbacked Yes | 0c | 27,660$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35f…3e04backed Yes | 0c | 27,645$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…5481backed Yes | 9c | 26,941$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…a13fbacked Yes | 0c | 26,830$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…080abacked Yes | 2c | 25,867$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.88 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…74bebacked Yes | 0c | 25,185$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb37…939fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…9913backed Yes | 0c | 24,700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…dda7backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,833$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 6c | 23,325$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.16 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…be49backed Yes | 1c | 22,600$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e884backed Yes | 1c | 22,574$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.83 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?this page
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.