TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0941…5481

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
39
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NHL, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 62 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-51.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,372Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,372.04
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+775.9%+$931.04
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$447.57
Will the US strike Iraq next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will the US strike Yemen next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,157
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$283.26
Will the US strike another country first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the US strike Iraq next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will the US strike Yemen next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the US strike Syria next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$70
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$24
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$200
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+88.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$825Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$825.32
Nets vs. Pistonsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+740.3%+$148.06
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+96.1%+$96.08
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+163.2%+$163.16
Spread: Wizards (-3.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$102.22
Spread: Magic (-15.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+88.7%+$44.34
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+92.3%+$92.31
Spread: Celtics (-2.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+104.1%+$260.2
All 11 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT7100%7 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+95.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$395.92
Lightning vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$322.49
Capitals vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$151.82
Blackhawks vs. Krakenbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+150%+$94.82
Blues vs. Krakenbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+132.6%+$198.84
Stars vs. Canucksbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+56.3%+$140.63
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)backed Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$106.75
All 7 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+96.1%+$48.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Brunno Ferreira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.