Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Iran next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd054d5a23d72e41369a4bdd3a7170b9a55ea1b8023cd579588692ec0a7601288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,916,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,010,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,916,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 3c | 69,195$2,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,378.93 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…143cbacked Yes | 1c | 63,585$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 1c | 50,263$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.51 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 4c | 43,851$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.9 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 2c | 32,473$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…5481backed Yes | 4c | 26,603$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…9506backed Yes | 9c | 26,332$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…6d64backed Yes | 2c | 23,605$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…6ab2backed Yes | 2c | 21,288$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…dcefbacked Yes | 5c | 21,040$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…806bbacked Yes | 1c | 20,786$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…a29dbacked Yes | 10c | 20,206$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 2c | 16,430$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.24 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…8d49backed Yes | 2c | 15,018$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…716ebacked Yes | 4c | 14,502$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 14,473$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 13,219$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.41 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,941$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.48 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…48c2backed Yes | 6c | 12,795$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 2c | 11,389$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…6fd7backed Yes | 2c | 10,905$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46a…919ebacked Yes | 8c | 10,491$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,373$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 3c | 10,297$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.55 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…99f9backed Yes | 3c | 10,156$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…ea6dbacked Yes | 3c | 10,104$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes | 2c | 10,054$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed Yes | 62c | 10,000$6,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,189.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…014bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,508$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf09…3cb5backed Yes | 2c | 9,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…5f96backed Yes | 9c | 8,804$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.45 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…6b79backed Yes | 3c | 8,681$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 2c | 8,627$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…9b1ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,586$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2952…f50dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,509$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd020…790bbacked Yes | 4c | 7,261$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8360…26cabacked Yes | 5c | 7,227$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 5c | 7,172$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 12c | 6,950$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…c003backed Yes | 7c | 6,911$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,863$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 6,862$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…41e0backed Yes | 3c | 6,698$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 1c | 6,620$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6baf…3819backed Yes | 4c | 6,609$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 1c | 6,447$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…257dbacked No | 13c | 6,096$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,313.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…1b45backed Yes | 3c | 6,051$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea01…41ebbacked Yes | 2c | 6,038$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 5,893$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.06 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 1c | 5,786$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…0fa6backed Yes | 4c | 5,307$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…17eebacked Yes | 3c | 5,301$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…e71cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,058$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +305.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…d4d7backed Yes | 5c | 4,908$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…b2e8backed Yes | 2c | 4,811$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…8a58backed Yes | 3c | 4,758$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…70d9backed Yes | 3c | 4,738$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…b87abacked Yes | 2c | 4,619$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +1,330.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 4,575$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…c415backed Yes | 1c | 4,483$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…3e64backed Yes | 4c | 4,462$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Yes | 1c | 4,459$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 4,253$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…3ee4backed Yes | 9c | 4,181$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…2b63backed Yes | 4c | 4,156$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…385dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,086$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…94bebacked Yes | 2c | 4,056$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093d…3a53backed Yes | 1c | 3,882$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…70e4backed Yes | 5c | 3,877$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…1ecabacked Yes | 2c | 3,852$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…162fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,731$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…7308backed Yes | 2c | 3,698$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…90f1backed Yes | 2c | 3,615$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 3c | 3,403$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…8641backed Yes | 5c | 3,389$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…5e0ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,325$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa304…66c2backed Yes | 3c | 3,308$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…cf94backed Yes | 3c | 3,292$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb461…55ecbacked Yes | 2c | 3,244$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc069…9386backed Yes | 2c | 3,195$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2a…3cc5backed Yes | 3c | 3,165$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 3,140$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…370dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,139$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…ea6ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…f818backed Yes | 2c | 3,004$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63a…bff3backed Yes | 4c | 2,988$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4004…c40bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,963$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 2,959$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…9829backed Yes | 2c | 2,955$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfe…f17fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,888$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…f21fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,845$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…fc65backed Yes | 1c | 2,814$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…d755backed Yes | 2c | 2,801$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 4c | 2,784$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 2,768$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…2b54backed Yes | 4c | 2,766$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,657$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…7349backed Yes | 3c | 2,579$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…de6bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,570$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Iran next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.