Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Somalia next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15519d29f4256ada6f7280910a456c52b7108e1b6fa2cc820b90ae0dbc2cd6c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $657,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $694,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $657,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 5c | 31,332$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.23 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 18,313$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.55 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…143cbacked No | 1c | 15,460$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 11,250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0592…70e7backed No | 12c | 9,959$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 4c | 8,072$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.94 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 2c | 7,532$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 6,509$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed No | 2c | 5,809$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…41c7backed No | 5c | 5,558$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…6ab2backed No | 3c | 5,372$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…26a2backed No | 2c | 4,878$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…5355backed No | 1c | 4,425$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 6c | 4,310$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.32 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…6c36backed No | 1c | 4,309$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,196$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed No | 1c | 4,184$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…46adbacked No | 5c | 4,032$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…1f21backed No | 3c | 3,838$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 3,783$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 4c | 3,598$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8937…488abacked No | 5c | 3,459$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 22c | 3,100$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.41 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 2,817$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…68fabacked No | 1c | 2,694$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…8dcabacked No | 1c | 2,575$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…3901backed No | 1c | 2,381$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 4c | 2,344$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8921…65f5backed No | 2c | 2,334$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 80c | 2,124$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…b468backed No | 6c | 2,102$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…257dbacked Yes | 58c | 2,079$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…fc65backed No | 6c | 2,008$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…5f96backed No | 10c | 2,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 63c | 1,961$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.08 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 3c | 1,933$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.4 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…5503backed No | 2c | 1,905$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…f304backed No | 1c | 1,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…1ecabacked No | 4c | 1,853$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 1,834$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed Yes | 59c | 1,715$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.65 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 6c | 1,700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5841…cd1dbacked No | 3c | 1,669$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed No | 6c | 1,664$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…844abacked No | 3c | 1,601$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1f…394bbacked No | 8c | 1,583$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…2212backed No | 3c | 1,541$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8be1backed Yes | 68c | 1,500$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…73e9backed No | 4c | 1,482$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed No | 3c | 1,478$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 41c | 1,462$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.42 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 3c | 1,420$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959c…8738backed No | 6c | 1,392$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b3…8f91backed No | 1c | 1,347$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…7308backed No | 5c | 1,338$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0a4fbacked No | 4c | 1,288$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed No | 4c | 1,284$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…3b0ebacked No | 6c | 1,225$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e8…3b19backed No | 1c | 1,210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 4c | 1,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf171…2d3ebacked No | 4c | 1,114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215e…f6cbbacked No | 3c | 1,076$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…f818backed No | 5c | 1,052$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1891…8852backed No | 3c | 1,051$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…2f9cbacked No | 1c | 1,029$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…3137backed No | 7c | 1,024$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…c047backed No | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 74c | 999$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.01 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…ae2fbacked No | 2c | 952.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a9…2f47backed No | 3c | 917.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ebabacked No | 3c | 900$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 16c | 825$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdeb…30d3backed No | 4c | 822.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed No | 2c | 782.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988f…f304backed No | 5c | 775.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 760$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…dba7backed No | 9c | 751.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 7c | 716.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 3c | 710$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 707.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 64c | 684.27$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.06 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…89a2backed No | 6c | 677.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 21c | 625$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e5…9d08backed No | 3c | 625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 2c | 605.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…8c11backed No | 3c | 603$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6aa…4949backed No | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796b…2088backed No | 7c | 564.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked No | 2c | 561.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacec…a5f3backed No | 9c | 546.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 49c | 534.87$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.99 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…2d35backed No | 2c | 533.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…9829backed No | 5c | 529.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…d3a0backed No | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 17c | 525$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…046cbacked No | 6c | 507.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…34c0backed No | 20c | 499.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…625abacked No | 6c | 487.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Somalia next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.