Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Iraq next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70c83c1085de4deb6863f116f6a468bf3e2ba6bcbaebd03d8859a52f77cfb7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $387,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $281,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $387,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 28,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c41…d446backed Yes | 0c | 19,985$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 1c | 18,271$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,937$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…1a1dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,312$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb145…4a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes | 0c | 11,990$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…5481backed Yes | 1c | 10,705$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…5f3abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…dcefbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988f…f304backed Yes | 1c | 9,270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 6,471$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…dde1backed Yes | 0c | 5,973$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…9fcbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,379$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,023$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 3,645$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 0c | 3,642$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…e451backed Yes | 1c | 3,453$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed Yes | 1c | 3,160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…2dd9backed Yes | 0c | 2,685$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…74d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,573$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +179.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x318a…4a32backed Yes | 1c | 2,340$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 1c | 2,301$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,122$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…f818backed Yes | 2c | 1,961$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…7c05backed Yes | 1c | 1,899$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073c…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 1,735$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +347.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed Yes | 1c | 1,506$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 1c | 1,466$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b16…f985backed Yes | 1c | 1,414$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796b…2088backed Yes | 1c | 1,006$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…b1efbacked Yes | 1c | 984.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 13cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…b2d4backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f72…a0e9backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Iraq next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.