Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Cuba next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c735153e2602c532e3c73c86e24bbcbccaec5996527180adac2707074926c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $473,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $356,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $473,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc709…5f3abacked Yes | 0c | 55,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 42,860$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…dcefbacked Yes | 0c | 39,993$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…68a6backed Yes | 9c | 17,124$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…e238backed Yes | 0c | 15,714$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 1c | 13,195$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,906$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0b…dd71backed Yes | 1c | 9,388$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1faf…eb07backed Yes | 0c | 8,436$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed Yes | 0c | 7,234$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x092d…6ee5backed Yes | 0c | 6,608$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…46adbacked Yes | 1c | 6,564$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13e…d338backed Yes | 0c | 6,499$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…4841backed Yes | 0c | 5,849$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,343$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…714bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,972$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…adc3backed Yes | 1c | 2,935$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…f818backed Yes | 0c | 2,919$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c2…7a21backed Yes | 2c | 2,795$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89af…634dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,451$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 2c | 2,319$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393a…4623backed Yes | 1c | 2,274$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…bd58backed Yes | 0c | 2,106$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9433…51f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,946$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,701$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,229$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,077$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ef10backed Yes | 1c | 715.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…cf15backed Yes | 2c | 617.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…e5b6backed Yes | 2c | 537.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 38c | 386.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…0be6backed Yes | 3c | 317.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Cuba next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.