TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blackhawks vs. Kraken

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blackhawksof Blackhawks, Kraken
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$729,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$741,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $729,609 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 610 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Blackhawks40c229,707$90,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,776.81,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Kraken61c60,000$36,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,599.7967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Kraken61c40,000$24,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,4001,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kraken59c31,384$18,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,618.62,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Kraken60c27,211$16,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,326.5912047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fd…fe19backed Kraken61c20,000$12,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,20020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Kraken59c18,939$11,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,164.7159450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe5…b317backed Kraken61c17,778$10,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,844.6650%0 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Kraken35c17,624$6,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,098.5827448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Kraken60c17,573$10,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,543.6548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Blackhawks44c12,657$5,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,145.6137754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Blackhawks44c12,035$5,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,687.2319759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kraken60c12,000$7,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,159.991,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Kraken60c10,120$6,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,029.236748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Blackhawks40c10,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0002552%13 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Kraken51c9,915$5,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,091.1175251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Kraken32c9,537$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,014.1551045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Blackhawks42c9,283$3,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,397.165276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Blackhawks43c9,175$3,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,235.933450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Kraken61c9,000$5,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,49026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Blackhawks42c8,211$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,770.6216442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4084…357abacked Kraken61c7,410$4,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,520757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Kraken61c7,303$4,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,431.241850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Blackhawks39c7,000$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,27029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Blackhawks46c6,781$3,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,634.6718853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Kraken60c6,666$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.5552050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Blackhawks39c6,540$2,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.414954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Blackhawks39c6,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,66014940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Blackhawks39c5,980$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,668.531,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Kraken10c5,508$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.730259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Blackhawks44c5,217$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.437557.3%43 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Kraken61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,05061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Blackhawks67c4,358$2,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.342,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Kraken62c4,355$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70024749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kraken60c4,325$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.451,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3437…b330backed Blackhawks39c4,242$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,587.62475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Kraken61c4,000$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,44022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Kraken61c4,000$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,44039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blackhawks39c4,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4401,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Kraken60c3,695$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2171,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Blackhawks74c3,614$2,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.152951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kraken47c3,478$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.762,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…8cecbacked Kraken61c3,465$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,113.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Kraken60c3,341$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.3666552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Kraken62c3,333$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.4689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Blackhawks39c3,332$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.3338849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kraken16c3,189$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.0589636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kraken36c3,067$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.783,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Blackhawks41c3,054$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.9313252.3%69 W · 63 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ad…eae6backed Blackhawks38c2,985$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Kraken60c2,849$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.971,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7837…40f1backed Kraken62c2,789$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7291533.3%5 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-49.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kraken39c2,773$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.9724837.9%94 W · 154 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kraken38c2,603$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.611,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Blackhawks68c2,525$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.5852172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Kraken60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.0143548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Kraken60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Blackhawks39c2,498$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.8583652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Kraken60c2,334$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.3127850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Kraken42c2,275$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.4312654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Blackhawks40c2,250$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35030946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Blackhawks74c2,092$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.7927037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Kraken62c2,087$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.945541.8%23 W · 32 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Blackhawks76c2,080$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.7399638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kraken10c2,058$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.289355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kraken61c2,042$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.841,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe779…335ebacked Blackhawks38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2404463.6%28 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Kraken60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Blackhawks41c1,974$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.8219150.8%97 W · 94 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Kraken60c1,800$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.019751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Blackhawks40c1,778$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.554652.2%24 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Kraken61c1,750$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.52958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Blackhawks46c1,681$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.5814062.1%87 W · 53 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Kraken35c1,680$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5884151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kraken59c1,648$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.6183149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Blackhawks62c1,572$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.2611547%54 W · 61 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Blackhawks70c1,570$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.477739%30 W · 47 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Kraken60c1,550$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.2326750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Kraken50c1,550$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.6416446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad3…fb0fbacked Kraken61c1,542$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fdc…a29abacked Kraken10c1,530$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.85742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Blackhawks39c1,513$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.7976950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Blackhawks66c1,500$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.0832653.1%173 W · 153 L+18.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Blackhawks71c1,474$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.6210947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Kraken23c1,456$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.1510941.3%45 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kraken60c1,453$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.92,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Kraken61c1,400$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85432150.8%163 W · 158 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…7b27backed Kraken6c1,378$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8de…a2b8backed Kraken12c1,361$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.111735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kraken50c1,332$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.481,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Blackhawks40c1,325$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7957149.3%35 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd714…9a62backed Blackhawks39c1,321$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.516845.6%31 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88a0…f673backed Blackhawks40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7504553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ca…814fbacked Kraken62c1,240$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.84250%21 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kraken59c1,225$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.51,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Kraken59c1,177$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.4131848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Kraken13c1,169$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e59…307dbacked Blackhawks43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.791662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Blackhawks42c1,129$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.910343.7%45 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Kraken57c1,116$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.2144848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.