Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Iran next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdce4939db6c189a46fd0c04eb12d026261e589664bed83fca8697192353ea6d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,232,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,384,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,232,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb37…7152backed Yes | 0c | 63,753$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29e…3864backed Yes | 1c | 51,425$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 5c | 38,439$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.84 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…8f92backed Yes | 0c | 31,097$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +196.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…5481backed Yes | 0c | 30,563$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…8e8abacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…95a0backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…de01backed Yes | 0c | 29,931$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…8fd9backed Yes | 3c | 27,845$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…8509backed Yes | 0c | 25,496$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…a858backed Yes | 0c | 21,333$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…c13bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,593$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…2476backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6b…bf78backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…7a08backed Yes | 0c | 14,750$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…6e97backed Yes | 0c | 14,724$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…4ac0backed Yes | 1c | 14,080$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…8461backed Yes | 0c | 13,867$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…9829backed Yes | 0c | 11,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c1…56dbbacked Yes | 0c | 11,236$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e5…1433backed Yes | 0c | 10,580$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…d1fabacked Yes | 0c | 10,290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…ca2bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…85edbacked Yes | 1c | 9,467$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…aca9backed Yes | 2c | 7,884$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f0…5506backed Yes | 0c | 7,867$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…7f68backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x493a…4d85backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,135$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.99 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…f143backed Yes | 8c | 6,126$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc48c…044cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…046fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,990$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 3c | 5,585$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…6870backed Yes | 0c | 5,359$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…b7acbacked Yes | 2c | 5,149$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf523…ec90backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…4c04backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…f1a3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 0c | 4,995$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 4,829$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…5cf0backed Yes | 0c | 4,740$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Yes | 5c | 4,372$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,312$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5640…b75bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,121$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…6cbdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,978$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 3,557$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.81 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cce…4ba7backed Yes | 0c | 3,357$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 4c | 3,319$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.53 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…964bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,245$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b56…7ababacked Yes | 8c | 2,995$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 7c | 2,944$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 2,881$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,700$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…49c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,627$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,592$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 2,579$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5856…e2b1backed Yes | 5c | 2,189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +213.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 2,176$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…21c6backed Yes | 6c | 2,079$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…b2a5backed Yes | 5c | 2,048$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…684fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,028$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 1,901$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…ce57backed Yes | 6c | 1,568$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aeb…8ecebacked Yes | 6c | 1,482$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c2…ea84backed Yes | 4c | 1,415$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,330$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c8…b7c5backed Yes | 4c | 1,247$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…b62dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,229$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 4c | 1,226$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…a85abacked Yes | 4c | 1,220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…3062backed Yes | 5c | 1,108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb776…0297backed Yes | 7c | 1,065$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 7c | 999.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…8d93backed Yes | 7c | 845.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…2949backed Yes | 4c | 736.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1d11backed Yes | 4c | 732.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…6888backed Yes | 4c | 703.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6e…f7d7backed Yes | 8c | 672.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 8c | 658.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e75…ff22backed Yes | 5c | 637.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…c617backed Yes | 8c | 620.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed Yes | 4c | 616.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 612.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…fb67backed Yes | 5c | 599.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…ac34backed Yes | 5c | 586.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…0532backed Yes | 7c | 585.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 585.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…6290backed Yes | 5c | 552.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…e274backed Yes | 4c | 486.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a84…bb2ebacked Yes | 5c | 476.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 469.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…fdb5backed Yes | 7c | 468.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…c0dcbacked Yes | 4c | 464.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +179.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…43c4backed Yes | 4c | 464.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…dc63backed Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…f30fbacked Yes | 4c | 438.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc421…929dbacked Yes | 5c | 434.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes | 4c | 428.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Iran next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.