Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Syria next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92e0a9e929b80f5cb5cc45251809d1ec6ab772b745850d919fc9e7d21d6d9ddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 24,701$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 6c | 20,787$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.64 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 1c | 17,962$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…1307backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 7c | 6,316$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.66 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 0c | 6,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 4,542$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,497$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 17c | 3,487$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.27 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 2c | 3,450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…5481backed Yes | 2c | 3,388$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…ef28backed Yes | 1c | 3,185$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb215…5708backed Yes | 1c | 3,106$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,949$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 19c | 2,417$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 30c | 2,259$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.19 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 1c | 2,072$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,800$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 1,718$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…34b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,656$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…1766backed Yes | 9c | 1,533$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.71 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,423$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,406$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.69 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,404$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,304$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Yes | 8c | 1,226$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 15c | 1,170$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 8c | 1,147$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,104$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.98 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,087$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…b2a5backed Yes | 10c | 1,019$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…98d5backed Yes | 3c | 1,016$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.43per pick | 52cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 11c | 985.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 975.15$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes | 16c | 927.7$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed Yes | 14c | 923.44$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 9c | 921$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 832.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 787.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…9829backed Yes | 1c | 769.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 5c | 746.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…9c3bbacked Yes | 16c | 723.44$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked Yes | 8c | 688.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 7c | 679.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…ef15backed Yes | 15c | 675.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 3c | 648.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 80c | 637.53$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…a43ebacked Yes | 5c | 628.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 621.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Yes | 47c | 559.69$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 8c | 454.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb91…9e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 440.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 3c | 439.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed Yes | 3c | 416.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -15.7wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked Yes | 7c | 415.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 410.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 11c | 407.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4617…0aa2backed Yes | 8c | 398.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…8f22backed Yes | 7c | 373.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e75…ff22backed Yes | 10c | 318.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09eb…8af8backed Yes | 9c | 317.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…d42ebacked Yes | 5c | 302.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…a1c7backed Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 20c | 291.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 8c | 256.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 9c | 240.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…30dabacked Yes | 9c | 227.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -87%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 224.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 13c | 218.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed Yes | 17c | 210.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 9c | 181.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 44c | 161.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c8…c4f0backed Yes | 10c | 153.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…8732backed Yes | 17c | 131.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…2e0abacked Yes | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 106.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…ab84backed Yes | 21c | 93.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Syria next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.