Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Somalia next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f3d0fbb615a69f0c6db6bb75e039e1db99e09e8ad1c24125004651058c71b6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $467,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $486,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $467,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x496f…be59backed No | 0c | 10,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105f…5a04backed No | 1c | 9,443$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…d7ebbacked No | 1c | 9,370$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 0c | 8,121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 4c | 7,656$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.58 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…cc06backed No | 1c | 5,226$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…74b2backed No | 2c | 5,103$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf523…ec90backed No | 2c | 4,843$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed No | 8c | 4,056$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.63 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 3,510$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 3,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 3,093$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…c249backed No | 2c | 2,712$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed No | 1c | 2,690$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…a279backed No | 2c | 2,656$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 79c | 2,616$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.69 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,506$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 1c | 2,397$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…8e8abacked No | 2c | 2,362$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…13cdbacked No | 2c | 2,338$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 2,222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 73c | 2,028$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.85 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed Yes | 78c | 1,979$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…d433backed No | 2c | 1,975$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…7eabbacked No | 1c | 1,786$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf8…ebedbacked No | 23c | 1,786$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 10c | 1,481$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.55 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…9829backed No | 2c | 1,423$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 22c | 1,377$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.26 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb894…9cb7backed No | 2c | 1,323$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 2c | 1,300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 1c | 1,247$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfb…4997backed No | 2c | 1,193$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9feb…bdbdbacked No | 1c | 1,191$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…99adbacked No | 2c | 1,176$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 1,147$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b56…7ababacked No | 24c | 1,056$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 18c | 1,053$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.33 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 4c | 1,036$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 1,001$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…293bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…4c04backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a2…5a5fbacked No | 2c | 900.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…6de5backed No | 22c | 882.21$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 869.71$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked No | 1c | 858.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked No | 1c | 812.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa053…c437backed No | 1c | 806.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…dd76backed No | 17c | 800$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Yes | 72c | 787.68$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 39c | 738.23$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.54 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68b6…3fffbacked No | 1c | 728.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd6…419bbacked No | 2c | 649.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…86d5backed No | 15c | 624.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…f690backed No | 18c | 550.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…98d5backed No | 3c | 531.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.43per pick | 52cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…846fbacked No | 2c | 502.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…27a5backed No | 18c | 490.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351c…9dffbacked No | 2c | 459.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…d8c4backed Yes | 80c | 437.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b48…73e2backed No | 14c | 402.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 17c | 362.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…cc55backed No | 18c | 303.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x349f…b785backed No | 13c | 270$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…62f8backed Yes | 75c | 268.06$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee77…9647backed No | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed No | 10c | 251.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -15.7wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 20c | 227.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 209$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…df84backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144e…a61cbacked No | 18c | 180.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…a74abacked No | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…6888backed No | 18c | 163.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…e20ebacked No | 17c | 156.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 152.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 146.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…e178backed No | 14c | 143.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…a43ebacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…2b0bbacked No | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…10babacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…62c2backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db8…47f8backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba2…6c90backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 16c | 111$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97d…0ff0backed No | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed No | 15c | 109.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 105.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…cf8fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Somalia next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.