TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9b56…7aba

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
74
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NFL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 54 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST4060%24 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.7%+$95.42
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+128.1%+$64.05
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+72.4%+$126
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$419Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+56.9%+$237.99
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+58.7%+$73.41
Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$40
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$50
1H Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Spread: Texans (-6.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+177.8%+$177.78
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+58.7%+$29.37
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$641Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+66.8%+$427.89
Spread: Texans (-3.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+85.2%+$16.5
Texans vs. Steelers: 1H Moneylinebacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+69.8%+$104.7
1H Spread: Texans (-1.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$53
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+53.8%+$175
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+222.6%+$483
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+117.4%+$446.93
Spread: Rams (-6.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Rams (-7.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$125
Spread: Lions (-6.5)backed Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$159.99
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$95.2
Dolphins vs. Steelersbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$261.38
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+138.5%+$91.81
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+137.3%+$240.28
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$115
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$25.2
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$196
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$138
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$31.8
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+103.8%+$66.2
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.4
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+141.8%+$25.53
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.48
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$28.13
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$47.06
All 17 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+104.1%+$15.61
Spread: Indiana (-8.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+81.8%+$36
Miami vs. Indianabacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$92.6
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$151.36
Blue Jays vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+42.5%+$114.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-China trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.