TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Thunder, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,915 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Pacers48c30,000$14,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,72047848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Pacers49c30,000$14,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,194.9927251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Thunder53c23,490$12,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,449.710357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Thunder52c20,844$10,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,838.9920248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed Thunder62c16,938$10,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,501.831822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Thunder52c15,951$8,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,308.1646426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Thunder51c14,476$7,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,312.33764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Pacers49c14,292$7,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,289.1722457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Pacers38c11,900$4,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,377.834062.5%25 W · 15 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+52%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Pacers46c10,415$4,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,621.9929957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Pacers44c10,000$4,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,559.523342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder55c10,000$5,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,489.980146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Thunder51c7,374$3,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,724.341338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers47c6,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1802,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60014052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Thunder51c4,032$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,056.479558.9%56 W · 39 L+13.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb142…cd11backed Pacers49c3,645$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.954148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf020…a576backed Thunder54c3,480$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.2215724.2%38 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Pacers47c3,000$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59584150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0148…4341backed Thunder51c2,650$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers45c2,422$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.11,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pacers47c2,300$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,21976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Thunder52c2,200$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1447953.2%42 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Thunder53c1,851$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.0664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder51c1,765$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9966853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Thunder33c1,700$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5644854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Pacers49c1,563$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.3119958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Pacers47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7958637.2%32 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder56c1,172$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.341,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…fe6bbacked Pacers48c1,050$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5461553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Pacers49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.412454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pacers50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Pacers80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2007352.1%38 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Pacers50c1,000$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.5211654.3%63 W · 53 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Pacers48c958.33$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.333554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder52c928$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.4470640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x944a…a9adbacked Pacers47c851.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.063633.3%12 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a06…1e43backed Pacers47c700$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pacers47c638.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.32,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb1…eb96backed Thunder52c503.35$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.611250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Pacers49c502.84$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.4517044.1%75 W · 95 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Pacers49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2558167.9%55 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Pacers39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3051,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd621…bc07backed Thunder50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509555.8%53 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ec…f502backed Thunder53c450$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.52433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Pacers49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20478445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Thunder52c380$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.620756%116 W · 91 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Thunder54c340.92$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.12231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Thunder50c335$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.516160.9%98 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Pacers48c327$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.2816553.9%89 W · 76 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcef4…6c83backed Pacers49c320$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.29341.9%39 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked Thunder50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15014041.4%58 W · 82 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcc7…b588backed Thunder50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Pacers66c285$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.91457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Thunder52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030641.8%128 W · 178 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74c4…787bbacked Pacers50c233.14$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick27cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Pacers50c210.64$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3242740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe0…6e30backed Pacers47c207.94$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.23522.9%8 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x328f…e16cbacked Pacers49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Pacers49c202.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4211854.2%64 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea6…674dbacked Thunder55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101625%4 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Thunder52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002544%11 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder61c187.39$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.091,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Thunder54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010251%52 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Pacers49c176$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7695848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Pacers47c172.34$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3425336.8%93 W · 160 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Pacers49c163.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2735660.4%215 W · 141 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Thunder39c162.62$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.152638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Thunder51c159$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1925…1ddbbacked Pacers53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.56235.5%22 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ce9…c8dabacked Thunder50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed Pacers45c148$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8814254.2%77 W · 65 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+24.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Pacers49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4514727.9%41 W · 106 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8584…5761backed Thunder66c120$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b56…7ababacked Thunder56c108$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.481752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4919…0c56backed Pacers49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.049742.3%41 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Pacers49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Thunder52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe8…0ec5backed Pacers49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Thunder33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked Pacers48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522568%17 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a27…fe44backed Pacers49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6771…b783backed Pacers48c99.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527258.3%42 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c97…4c14backed Thunder54c90$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…7b6ebacked Thunder51c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.810851.9%56 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Thunder66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5056352%293 W · 270 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x385a…08d1backed Pacers33c75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.253426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Thunder51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.711044.5%49 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Thunder51c59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.092536%9 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Pacers49c57.61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3853250.4%268 W · 264 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef44…66afbacked Thunder67c52.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.03955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2578652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x871a…7be4backed Thunder51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.517359%102 W · 71 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Pacers47c42.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1519951.8%103 W · 96 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Pacers49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8226439.4%104 W · 160 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d3…d7eabacked Pacers49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacdd…4fccbacked Pacers50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Pacers45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228332.5%27 W · 56 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13cd…245dbacked Pacers47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.26443.8%28 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a2…293fbacked Thunder60c39.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.585961%36 W · 23 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.