NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa60cc036ed710c12689d3eb225e534a1b6bd04eaeee2d36217adbb06be85ac06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf187…16c0backed Over | 61c | 63,533$38,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,755.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…9cd5backed Under | 39c | 45,677$17,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,862.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…d15dbacked Under | 39c | 7,165$2,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,370.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…e647backed Under | 39c | 5,715$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,486.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…40febacked Under | 39c | 4,976$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,035.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Under | 73c | 4,831$3,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.38 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Over | 27c | 4,520$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.33 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Over | 40c | 529.95$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.23 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Over | 34c | 417.76$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 4c | 384$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 270 | 41.5%112 W · 158 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed Under | 34c | 199.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Under | 34c | 195.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…cb1cbacked Over | 62c | 195.3$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda06…75d9backed Under | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…2dfcbacked Over | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 208 | 47.6%99 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Under | 44c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 60c | 148.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…bc3dbacked Over | 66c | 135$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 27c | 124.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Under | 35c | 111$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…a1c1backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c8…ece8backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…afe9backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…6e23backed Over | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Over | 59c | 95.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 210 | 62.9%132 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8405backed Under | 41c | 92.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 38c | 92.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Under | 65c | 71.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -15.6wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 65c | 64.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d43bbacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Over | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed Under | 56c | 35.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 40c | 29.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…1c53backed Under | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 225.5this page
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. ThunderPacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.