NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x026cdc2c7811a8f019042b3a3984ea8da9b8e77f7df270743f640f41c481b876
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Thunder, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder | 57c | 5,050$2,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,878.45 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Pacers | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Pacers | 44c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pacers | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Thunder | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Pacers | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,198 | 46.8%561 W · 637 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…e26cbacked Pacers | 52c | 85.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder | 48c | 85.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Thunder | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Thunder | 54c | 58.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…70e6backed Thunder | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Thunder | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…8bfdbacked Pacers | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Thunder | 55c | 28.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Pacers | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5e…3ce7backed Thunder | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)this page
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. ThunderPacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.