NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3403a5edd5c9a4d0616541737357e7eea97b3536e3a388a119659452151e39a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Under | 51c | 15,101$7,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,409.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 10,810$5,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,297.05 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.99 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…8b98backed Over | 47c | 3,500$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Over | 49c | 2,731$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.19 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 49c | 2,642$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.76 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Over | 47c | 1,837$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.99 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 46c | 1,584$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.62 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Under | 54c | 1,000$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…eb96backed Under | 53c | 480$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Over | 49c | 415.82$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.75 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Under | 54c | 336.48$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7484backed Over | 49c | 235$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 47c | 221.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Under | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Over | 46c | 199.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Under | 54c | 186$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Over | 48c | 183.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Over | 13c | 175.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Under | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 52c | 122$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…e358backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Over | 48c | 100.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | +14.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -18.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…4c14backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Under | 52c | 93.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…5823backed Over | 47c | 92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8405backed Over | 47c | 74.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…7786backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 47.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 45.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…501bbacked Under | 53c | 41.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726d…f473backed Under | 53c | 33.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…3986backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe79b…0fe0backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…70e6backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 27.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…824ebacked Over | 49c | 25.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…f320backed Over | 48c | 20.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 230.5this page
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. ThunderPacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.