TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Pacers, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,913,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,965,748

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,913,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 718 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae36…8fb5backed Pacers68c346,212$234,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,339.6310357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Pacers37c242,600$89,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152,838.18333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Knicks63c232,298$146,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146,347.556344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Knicks63c201,879$127,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,165.2614052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a2…3b96backed Knicks69c125,723$86,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,275.572040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Pacers35c122,504$42,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,573.6728341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Pacers37c94,594$35,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,594.3123342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Knicks58c88,927$51,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,174.6313248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Pacers43c83,853$36,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,607.3818146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pacers37c74,232$27,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,766.4135235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Knicks67c44,815$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0005050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x617a…07b4backed Pacers11c43,596$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,595.891631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Knicks0c42,955$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9614434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Knicks63c40,000$25,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,2004025%10 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Pacers37c37,737$13,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,768.77445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Knicks67c37,709$25,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,429.9822457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Knicks1c36,858$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.578921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Knicks61c33,133$20,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,345.0946426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac63…7afcbacked Pacers19c30,731$5,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,957.451127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Knicks66c26,921$17,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,859.7229957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5fb…84b5backed Pacers38c26,422$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,422.481782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+74.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Knicks63c24,292$15,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,303.8428241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Pacers48c22,077$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,576.612842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Pacers46c20,746$9,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,112.5613560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Pacers39c20,529$7,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,564.195536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks59c20,000$11,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,80080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Pacers39c19,708$7,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,095.1570147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Pacers37c18,665$6,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,845.6696447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Pacers34c18,573$6,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,319.2728347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7268…0bc4backed Knicks0c18,390$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Pacers38c18,005$6,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,163.156435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Pacers13c17,221$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,910.73636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Pacers29c16,275$4,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,593.167946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Pacers34c16,000$5,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,519.731,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Knicks63c15,889$10,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,009.932454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks60c15,809$9,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,408.393,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Pacers36c14,300$5,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,144.571,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Knicks58c13,621$7,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,931.3348046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Pacers37c12,785$4,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,054.7161851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e05…01cdbacked Knicks65c12,136$7,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,880.811942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pacers35c11,000$3,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,11076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Knicks62c10,983$6,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,850.6479549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Knicks52c10,942$5,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,661.182,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Pacers6c10,522$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,899.830443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Knicks54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4003644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3088…ec44backed Knicks66c8,410$5,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,513.843043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Pacers39c8,244$3,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,028.584854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff7b…52a8backed Pacers38c8,175$3,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,058.986747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd12d…d764backed Pacers37c8,055$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,074.68742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pacers38c8,000$3,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,98036843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Pacers18c7,881$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,436.8722039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Knicks68c7,696$5,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,261.031729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers38c7,600$2,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,737.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Pacers38c7,571$2,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,728.5537734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Pacers5c7,386$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,985.0134425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Knicks57c6,648$3,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,761.481,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Knicks46c6,560$3,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,027.017953.2%42 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Pacers36c6,429$2,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,119.369450%47 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed Pacers37c6,258$2,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,942.624841.7%20 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Pacers45c6,096$2,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3791,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked Knicks63c5,810$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6601258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Pacers38c5,720$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,558.597261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Pacers66c5,589$3,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.1325536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Pacers23c5,439$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,208.315942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Knicks74c5,385$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00031453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Pacers40c5,253$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,166.888353%44 W · 39 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Pacers37c5,140$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,218.0410926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Pacers37c5,049$1,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,155.9888053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Knicks63c5,035$3,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,172.0547751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Knicks63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1501,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe36e…a46cbacked Pacers37c5,000$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,150540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabe9…8826backed Knicks63c4,836$3,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,046.454143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Knicks62c4,500$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.998053.8%43 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0cc…73e6backed Pacers35c4,366$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,825.713545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc458…52c7backed Knicks75c4,078$3,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,061.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29bf…25b0backed Pacers38c4,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4802060%12 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Pacers26c3,997$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,942.4327041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Pacers21c3,892$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,084.2316537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb39…ed7abacked Pacers38c3,756$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,328.692560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Pacers51c3,717$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,821.1838143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Knicks63c3,523$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.2813636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Pacers15c3,388$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.3619419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks63c3,175$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.2559653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Knicks79c3,160$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.7315549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Pacers10c3,128$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,801.3338027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Pacers33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0103141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xae7c…6d3bbacked Knicks40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005349.1%26 W · 27 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+48.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Pacers41c3,000$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.642245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Knicks62c3,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8601,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Pacers37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89030826.6%82 W · 226 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Knicks62c3,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86020047%94 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Pacers33c2,943$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.4613133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Pacers43c2,917$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.6966744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd3…56ccbacked Knicks63c2,759$1,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Pacers78c2,734$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.598259.8%49 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x944a…a9adbacked Pacers37c2,731$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.983633.3%12 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks63c2,696$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.492,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Knicks40c2,639$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.997929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b5…ea5cbacked Pacers37c2,568$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.57862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+86.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Pacers45c2,394$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.187561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.