NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5ebd5643019bf9ee3ea77aef0206768b6769abc2d0df20ab002141400f69b34

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pacersof Knicks, Pacers
Resolved: May 22, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,798
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,798 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Pacers	25c	9,923$2,452 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,470.43	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Pacers	50c	8,693$4,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,348.46	272	51.1%139 W · 133 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Pacers	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd189…06f4backed Pacers	13c	2,303$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000.71	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Knicks	48c	1,859$899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.31	299	57.2%171 W · 128 L	+11.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Knicks	50c	1,544$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772	304	43.1%131 W · 173 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Knicks	49c	1,512$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741.07	464	26.1%121 W · 343 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Pacers	50c	1,200$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600	661	53.3%352 W · 309 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Knicks	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.03	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pacers	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	368	43.8%161 W · 207 L	-17.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Knicks	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	111	44.1%49 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Knicks	58c	831.59$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.14	701	47.8%335 W · 366 L	+15.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1009…9ad0backed Pacers	51c	786.27$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.27	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Knicks	48c	741.84$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.04	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Pacers	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	102	51%52 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Pacers	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	389	42.9%167 W · 222 L	-16.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Pacers	52c	399.99$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	412	27.4%113 W · 299 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+94.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Pacers	51c	331$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.19	161	60.9%98 W · 63 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9320…95ddbacked Knicks	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	303	51.8%157 W · 146 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Pacers	52c	288.46$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.46	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Knicks	37c	272.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.18	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-3.5wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f84…dd89backed Knicks	48c	207.26$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Pacers	25c	200$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Knicks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	140	39.3%55 W · 85 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb7…2983backed Knicks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-55%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68f6…7742backed Pacers	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked Knicks	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	140	41.4%58 W · 82 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Pacers	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	270	41.5%112 W · 158 L	+10.7wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Pacers	48c	180.77$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	575	50.3%289 W · 286 L	+7.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Pacers	48c	127.87$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.49	181	46.4%84 W · 97 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Pacers	50c	110$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x915e…2a71backed Knicks	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Pacers	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	102	26.5%27 W · 75 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Pacers	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Knicks	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	289	49.1%142 W · 147 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b46…52a3backed Knicks	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Pacers	44c	95.98$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.74	706	40.8%288 W · 418 L	+7.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Knicks	59c	95$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.05	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cc8…e458backed Knicks	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	86	34.9%30 W · 56 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Pacers	50c	56.65$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.33	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Pacers	49c	53.72$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.39	220	41.4%91 W · 129 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Pacers	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Pacers	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	229	39.7%91 W · 138 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf92…e512backed Pacers	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	197	46.2%91 W · 106 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacdd…4fccbacked Pacers	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcba…4d0bbacked Knicks	52c	40.35$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.98	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Knicks	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	356	60.4%215 W · 141 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc51…2bedbacked Knicks	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	66.7%38 W · 19 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Pacers	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a26…29dabacked Knicks	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	44cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaed…f6a0backed Pacers	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2af6…34b5backed Pacers	51c	29.69$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.69	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Pacers	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Pacers	58c	28.1$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.8	532	50.4%268 W · 264 L	-19.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers	48c	21.17$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.01	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event