NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd3d792527e043ed5f0d98e9c60f1d881268f17d6feede66c7ffebf0f708b32b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 18c | 19,696$3,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,545.28 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 3c | 9,957$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.56 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 62c | 5,863$3,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.35 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Over | 39c | 4,560$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.87 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…aaf9backed Under | 62c | 1,600$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 62c | 1,465$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.61 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 37c | 1,360$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.92 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Over | 41c | 1,227$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…2080backed Under | 66c | 1,114$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.06 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked Under | 72c | 952$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba6…0fbdbacked Under | 69c | 903.15$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 58c | 654.76$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.55 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Over | 10c | 553.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 26c | 485.54$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 61c | 411.24$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.38 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 39c | 409.03$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 66c | 337.65$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 64c | 318.23$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Under | 64c | 310.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 66c | 231.28$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 58c | 221.66$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.06 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 62c | 208$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 29c | 169.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…031abacked Under | 65c | 153.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Over | 37c | 138.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 34c | 115.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 39c | 91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b56…7ababacked Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 36c | 78.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 66c | 75.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Under | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 38c | 67.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 34c | 63.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Over | 33c | 61.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…6a9bbacked Under | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…6715backed Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…de22backed Under | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +7.8wins | +0.36per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Under | 63c | 47.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 63c | 47.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Under | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Under | 64c | 44.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…a35abacked Under | 64c | 39.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Under | 66c | 38.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 37c | 35.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…acb6backed Under | 75c | 32.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…93b7backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…c909backed Under | 63c | 17.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-1.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Texans won
- Texans Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Texans vs. SteelersTexans won
- Texans vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.