NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 19.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1d76d8df43e148253cbbde60639dce19bd7a8dde4cb5aefd642d52773ad9c53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd432…0624backed Under | 53c | 3,555$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf168…b9d3backed Over | 47c | 3,555$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8730…48c9backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…facdbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Under | 54c | 2,634$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.59 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…1eacbacked Under | 55c | 1,916$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.96 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 1,881$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.27 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 1,676$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.64 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 52c | 984.12$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.38 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Over | 48c | 956.25$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 616.26$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.26 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 33c | 500$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 53c | 424.82$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.67 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 370$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…469fbacked Under | 55c | 364.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.03 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 273.64$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.61 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 47c | 256$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 47c | 212.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Over | 45c | 122$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 54.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Under | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 46c | 35.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…aefabacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 47c | 26.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 19.5this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-1.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Texans won
- Texans Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Texans vs. SteelersTexans won
- Texans vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.