NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34161f7720e267f78bb699d22b42d9914d2fbd42849aa564d353bc81e58f2f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…6e34backed Under | 58c | 6,631$3,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,785.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Over | 42c | 6,052$2,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.77 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed Under | 19c | 5,235$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,241.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Under | 20c | 4,600$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,680 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 20c | 3,990$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,192 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 43c | 3,640$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.39 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 1,989$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.23 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…e375backed Under | 58c | 1,940$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 1,305$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.18 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 42c | 1,000$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.94 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 57c | 832$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.76 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 41c | 408.39$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.17 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Under | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 42c | 119.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…b6f1backed Over | 43c | 116.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 58c | 114$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 42c | 101.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…f64abacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…0accbacked Under | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 58c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…de22backed Under | 58c | 49.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +7.8wins | +0.36per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…0a32backed Over | 43c | 37.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…7ba9backed Under | 58c | 36.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb2…17b2backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5this page
- 1H Spread: Texans (-1.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-6.5)Texans won
- Texans Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Texans vs. SteelersTexans won
- Texans vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineTexans won
- Texans vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 19.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5Under won
- Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.